Market Roundup
- Wall St sticks to June Fed hike, two hikes for year.
- Donald Trump predicts massive recession, economists puzzled.
- BoJ Tankan corporate price expectations survey soggy, CPI +0.8% eyed in year, +1.1% in three years, +1.2% in five, previous survey +1.0%, +1.3%, +1.4%.
- Japan coordinating G7 members to emphasize fiscal spending – Sankei.
- Japan March monetary base at fresh record high, Y375.7 trln, +27% y/y.
- Japan interbank lending shrinks to nearly 36-year low due to NIRP – Nikkei.
- Japan Post Bank looks to REITs in hunt for yield - Nikkei.
- Japan MUFG on hunt for M&A deals in US, Indonesia.
- Japan trust banks to cut pension funds’ exposure to Japanese stocks.
- RBA seen certain to stand pat in April – Reuters poll.
- Australia February retail sales unchanged m/m, +0.4% eyed.
- Australia February building approvals +3.1% m/m, +2% eyed, private-sector houses -1.2%.
- Australia March MI inflation unchanged m/m, +1.7% y/y, trimmed mean unchanged, +1.6%, below RBA target band for first time since November.
- Australia March ANZ job ads +0.2% m/m, +10.0% y/y, Feb -1.2%, +8.2% but trend slows, -0.2% m/m, +8.7% y/y, Feb unchanged, +9.6%.
- NZ Q1 Westpac/MM employee confidence 104.8, Q4 ’15 101.5.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy Q4 ISTAT public deficit/GDP; last 2.4%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) EZ April Sentix index, 6.4 eyed; last 5.5.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK March construction PMI, 54.0 eyed; last 54.2.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ February producer prices, -0.6% m/m, -4.0% y/y eyed; last -1.0%, -2.9%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) EZ February unemployment, 10.3% eyed; last 10.3%.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US March ISM NY index; last 720.8, business conditions 53.6.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US March employment trends index; last 129.1.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US February factory orders, -1.7% m/m eyed; last +1.6%.
Key Events Ahead
- China, Hong Kong markets closed, Taiwan closed today/tomorrow for Ching Ming.
- (0420 ET/0820 GMT) ECB Chief Econ Praet speaks at Rome conference.
- (0540 ET/0940 GMT) Netherlands E1-2 bln 3 and 6-month DTC auctions.
- (0855 ET/1255 GMT) France E3.2-3.6/1.2-1./1.4-1.8 bln 3/6/12-month BTF note auctions.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) BoC Gov Poloz, DepGov Wilkins speak at Ottawa event.
- (1015 ET/1415 GMT) Boston Fed Rosengren speech at Boston Fed conference.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) BoC business outlook, senior loan officer surveys.
- (1900 ET/2300 GMT) Minny Fed Kashkari in Minneapolis town hall meeting.
FX Recap
USD: The dollar was on the defensive on Monday, after Friday's firm U.S. jobs report failed to shift the broadly held view that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious on interest rate hikes this year. The dollar slipped about 0.2 percent to 111.45 yen, after earlier skidding to as low as 111.32, its nadir since March 21.
EUR/USD: The euro edged up 0.1 percent to $1.1389, not far from a 5-1/2-month high of $1.1438 struck on Friday. Pair remains well supported above key resistance at $1.1342 marks and trading around $1.1388 mark. Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support level at $1.1334. A daily close above key resistance at 1.1342 will drag the parity up towards $1.1469 marks. On the down side, key support level is seen at $1.1159/ $1.1057 marks.
USD/JPY: The Japanese Yen edged down and remains supported below 112.00. Pair is currently trading around 111.38 levels. A daily close below key support level at 111.23 will drag the parity down towards at 110.66/ 108.75/107.51 marks thereafter. On the top side, key resistance levels are seen at 114.87/115.96 levels.
GBP/USD: The pound edged down slightly to $1.4220 after sliding 0.9 percent on Friday. The currency has pulled back from a seven-year low of $1.3836 struck late in February on worries about Britain leaving the European Union but has remained shaky. Pair breaks key support at $1.4357 marks and trading around $1.4223 levels. A sustained break below key support $1.4225 level will drag the parity down at $1.4057 marks. A daily close above $1.4357 will take the parity up towards key resistances at $1.4504/$1.4602.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slumped 0.5 percent to $0.7628, moving away from an eight-month high of $0.7723 scaled last week when a bounce in commodity prices and broad losses by the dollar boosted the Aussie. Intraday bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at $0.7672 levels. On the other side, a sustained close above $0.7672 will drag the parity up towards $0.7725 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below $0.7433 support levels will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7365 low. The Australia’s MI Inflation Gauge suggests that the CPI was flat March, after falling 0.2% in February and rising 0.4% in January. In addition, Australia released retail sales data with negative numbers at 0.0% m/m vs 0.3% m/m previous release. On the other side, Australia’s building approval rose to 3.1% m/m vs -6.6% m/m previous released.
NZD/USD: The kiwi also consolidated against the U.S. dollar after last week's rally to a nine-month high of $0.6968. It was down 0.3 percent at $0.6888. Pair supported below $0.69 marks and Short term bias remains bearish till the time pair holds key resistance at $0.6965. Key support was found at $0.6750, with resistance at $0.7002 levels.
Equities Recap
Today Chinese markets will be closed in observance of Tomb Sweeping Day.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index was trading 0.21% higher at 16,197.42 points.
South Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.10% higher at 1,975.35 points.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 equity index was trading 0.82% higher to 5040.00 points on Monday afternoon in Sydney.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices fell on Monday as the chances of Middle East producers agreeing to curb overproduction appeared to fade, while stubbornly high U.S. output and worries about Asia's economic outlook also dragged on prices. U.S. crude futures were at $36.39 per barrel at 0554 GMT, down 1.06 percent or 40 cents from their last settlement, while Brent crude was down 0.9 percent or 34 cents at $38.33. A global glut has pulled down oil prices by as much as 70 percent since 2014.
Gold extended losses on Monday after a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report signalled strength in the economy and stoked speculation the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates soon. Bullion's recent losses take it closer towards the key $1,200 an ounce level, a breach of which could trigger technical selling. Spot gold had eased 0.4 percent to $1,216.91 an ounce by 0330 GMT, after dropping 0.8 percent on Friday.
Treasuries Recap
10-year U.S. treasury yield held at 1.758 percent vs U.S. close of 1.791 percent on Friday.
BOJ offers to lend Y 3.1532 trln of JGBs on spot basis through 4/5 as a secondary source of JGBs.
Thailand 10 bln baht, 92-day debt restructuring bill accepted yield 1.35911 pct.
South Korea Central bank sells 91-day monetary stabilisation bonds at yield of 1.51 pct.
New Zealand government bond prices edged up, sending yields 2 basis points lower at the short end and 6 bps lower at the long end.
Australian government bond futures rose, with the three-year bond contract and 10-year contract both 6 ticks higher at 98.140 and 97.5350 respectively.
