- Greek debt talks stumble before EU leaders gather.
- Japan MoF flow data week-ended June 30 - Japanese buy net Y348.4 bln foreign stocks, Y7.8 bln bills, sell Y892.8 bln bonds; foreign investors sell net Y253.9 bln Japanese stocks, buy Y107.8 bln bonds, Y718.5 bln bills.
- New Zealand dairy farmers flock to Fonterra's guaranteed milk price scheme, may opt to lock in farm gate prices at same price as forecast for '15/16.
- (0200ET/0600 GMT) Germany June GKF consumer sentiment index, 10.2 eyed; last 10.2.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden May PPI; last -0.3% m/m, +2.4% y/y.
- (0600 ET/1000 GMT) UK June CBI distributive trades sales index, 35 eyed; last 51.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May personal income, +0.5% m/m eyed; last +0.4%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May personal consumption, +0.7% m/m eyed; last unchanged.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US May core PCE price index, +0.1% m/m eyed; last +0.1% m/m, +1.2% y/y.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US weekly initial jobless claims, 272k eyed; last 267k.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US June Markit PMI composite index flash; last 56.0.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) June Markit PMI services index flash, 56.7 eyed; last 56.2.
- (1100 ET/1500 GMT) US June KC Fed manufacturing, composite indices; last -13.0, -13.0.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) US May Dallas Fed PCE; last +1.9%.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A EU Summit in Brussels (till tomorrow).
- N/A IIF Europe Summit in Frankfurt, various speakers (till tomorrow).
- N/A Ireland CB Gov Honohan parliamentary testimony.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) ECB Nouy at Brussels public parliamentary hearing.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) SNB Chair Jordan speech in Lausanne.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Italy E0.5-1.0 bln 2.35/2.55% 2024/2041 index-linked BTP auctions.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) BoE Rule speech at Lisbon conference.
- (0700 ET/1100 GMT) Belgium CB Gov Smets presents '15 FSR, press conference to follow.
- N/A US SecCom Pritzker, USTR Froman speeches at Washington, DC event.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Fed Gov Tarullo in CFR roundtable discussion in Washington, DC.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Fed Gov Powell speech in Kansas City.
- (1210 ET/1610 GMT) BoC DepGov Schembri speech in Windsor.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1200 levels and currently trading at 1.1215 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1218 and low at 1.1194 levels. The euro traded with a minor gain, ignoring the latest news that the Euro group meeting has ended without a deal and has been postponed. Meanwhile, investors shifted attention to the ongoing Euro group meeting, which started later in the afternoon. The US GDP revision had little to offer, as it came out as expected at -0.2%, confirming the US economy contracted at the beginning of the year. Initial support is seen around 1.1050 and resistance is seen around 1.1375 levels.
USD/JPY is supported below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 123.94 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.55 and currently trading at 123.57 levels. The US dollar retreated after surging to a two-week high on Wednesday following the release of the latest American GDP estimates for Q1. The pair fell in red as the US dollar ran through fresh offers amid on profit-taking amid a data-empty Asian calendar. Wednesday's Euro group meeting ended without a deal and has been postponed until today which may boost the safe-haven bids in yen. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 122.10 levels.
GBP/USD is supported around $1.5700 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5711 and low at 1.5686 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5691 levels. The greenback slowly grabbed some momentum amid favourable US GDP data as sterling bulls took a nap after their previous strong rally. Today UK will release CBI realised sales data. The major now awaits fresh incentives from the US session later today in absence of significant economic data until US hours. Initial support is seen at 1.5624 and resistance is seen around 1.5835 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9334 levels and made intraday low at 0.9330 and high at 0.9346 levels. Market is trading flat after Switzerland released UBS consumption indicator data to 1.73 m/m and favourable US final GDP data. Near term support is seen at 0.9113 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9383 levels.
AUD/USD is supported above 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7740 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7747 levels and low at 0.7695 levels. The Aussie also received fresh momentum from higher commodity prices with gold posing a solid recovery after a drop to fresh 2-week lows on Wednesday. While, the Greek story is set to continue, with Euro group officials meeting up for the third time this week to reach a Greek solution after yet again ending yesterday's meeting in a no deal. The Aussie bulls took over complete control as markets view the recent decline as excessive ahead of a slew of US macro releases later today. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7838 levels.
