- CFTC IMM CAT data - USD net longs up for third straight week, JPY net shorts to 116.286 contracts, (pre-Kuroda REER talk), EUR shorts off to 137,974.
- China company insiders skim cream off frothy stock market.
- China growing confident as Hong Kong democracy vote looms.
- Fed hones tricky message as it nears boosting rates.
- UK ruling party lawmakers joining Brexit group jumps, 50 to 110.
- Several of the biggest fund managers based in London drawing up plans to move trillions of pounds out of Britain should UK vote for Brexit.
- Greece and creditors fail in last attempt to reach deal.
- EU Commission says Greek proposal incomplete, EZ ministers to decide -Reuters.
- Greece Deputy PM Dragasakis - Still ready to negotiate solution with lenders.
- Greece rejects pension and wage cuts, VAT hike on power.
- New Zealand May PSI 58.0, highest since July '14, April 56.5, 3 of 5 sub-indices up.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland April retail sales; last -2.8% y/y.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Switzerland May producer/import prices; last -2.1% m/m, -5.2% y/y.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden May unemployment, 8.0% eyed; last 8.3%, 7.8% sa.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy May CPI final, +0.2% m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; flash +0.2%, +0.2%.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy May HICP - final, +0.2% m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; flash +0.2%, +0.2%.
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone April trade balance; last E23.4 bln surplus.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US Jun NY Fed Empire State mfg index, 6.0 eyed; last 3.09.
- (0915 ET/1315 GMT) US May industrial output, +0.3% m/m eyed; last -0.3%.
- (0915 ET/1315 GMT) US May capacity utilization, 78.3% eyed; last 78.2%.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US Jun NAHB housing market index, 56.0 eyed; last 54.0.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A G20 Sherpas meeting in Bodrum, Turkey.
- N/A Austria CB conference in Vienna, various speakers (till June 16).
- N/A Ireland CB Hill speech in Dublin.
- N/A France BTF tsy note, Netherlands DTC, Norway bill, Slovakia bond auctions.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) ECB President Draghi Euro parliament quarterly testimony in Brussels.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) BoS Gov Linde speech at Pamplona event.
- (1600 ET/2000 GMT) US Treasury int'l capital flows report (TIC), last $100.9 net outflow.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.1200 levels and currently trading at 1.1220 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1230 and low at 1.1193 levels. The euro was trading weaker against its major currency peers on Monday after Greece and its debtors failed to strike an agreement over the weekend. Greece will resume talks on Thursday in Luxembourg when finance ministers from the 19-country Euro group meet. Today Euro Zone will release trade balance data. Initial support is seen around 1.1144 and resistance is seen around 1.1296 levels.
USD/JPY is supported above 123.00 levels and posted a high of 123.54 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.10 and currently trading at 123.40 levels. The Yen has been on the front foot since Kuroda called a virtual top in USD/JPY as officials continued to talk the major lower diminishing the fundamental case for a higher price. There has been a soft tone to the dollar across a number of majors, bar the euro but the Yen remains broadly strong across the FX tickers. Near term resistance is seen at 124.57 and support is seen at 123.02 levels.
GBP/USD is supported above $1.5500 levels. It made an intraday high at 1.5567 and low at 1.5527 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5533 levels. In the absence of major economic data from UK, market will eye the US data release due later in a day. Initial support is seen at 1.5440 and resistance is seen around 1.5535 levels.
USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9318 levels and made intraday low at 0.9286 and high at 0.9338 levels. Today Switzerland will release PPI and retail sales data, which will provide further direction to the parity. Near term support is seen at 0.9242 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9372 levels.
AUD/USD is supported just above 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7710 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7753 levels and low at 0.7709 levels. Analysts believe the RBA minutes due for release on Tuesday, will be dovish, compared to the Fed that is still planning on moving in the opposite direction. Ahead in the day, traders shall keep an eye on RBA's Kent's speech. The USD industrial production data could also influence the pair. Meanwhile, more worries about Greece after the failure of overnight talks could weigh over the Aussie. Initial support is seen at 0.7568 and resistance at 0.7811 levels.
NZDUSD is supported below 0.7000 levels and currently trading at 0.6969. It has made intraday high at 0.6996 and low at 0.6958 levels. The US dollar weakened across the board last week, except against the Kiwi, which fell on account of an interest rate cut by the RBNZ. Traders now await the FOMC decision, which could provide insight into the timing of interest rate hike in the US. A hawkish statement would confirm a diverging monetary policy path adopted by RBNZ and Fed. Initial support is seen at 0.6946 and resistance is seen around 0.7055 levels.
