Market Roundup
- US PPI Final Demand YY Feb -0.6%, f/c 0%, 0%-prev
- US PPI Final Demand MM Feb -0.5%, f/c 0.3%, -0.8%-prev
- US PPI exFood/Energy YY Feb 1%, f/c 1.6%, 1.6%-prev
- US PPI exFood/Energy MM Feb -0.5%, f/c 0.1%, -0.1%-prev
- US PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Feb 0.7%, 0.9%-prev
- US PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Feb 0%, -0.3%-prev
- US U Mich Sentiment Prelim Mar 91.2, f/c 95.5, 95.4-prev
- US U Mich Conditions Prelim Mar 103, f/c 105.7, 106.9-prev
- US U Mich Expectations Prelim Mar 83.7, f/c 87.5, 88-prev
- US U Mich 1Yr Inf Prelim Mar 3%, 2.8%-prev
- US U Mich 5-Yr Inf Prelim Mar 2.8%, 2.7%-prev
- US ECRI Weekly Index w/e 131.7, 130.5
- US ECRI Weekly Annualized w/e -4%, -4.6%-prev
- CA Employment Change Feb -1k, f/c -5.0k, 35.4k-prev
- CA Unemployment Rate Feb 6.8%, f/c 6.7%, 6.6%-prev
- CA Full time employment chng Feb +34k, -11.8k-prev
- CA Part time employment chng Feb -34.9k, 47.2k-prev
- CA Participation Rate Feb 65.8%, f/c 65.7%, 65.7%-prev
- MX Industrial Output YY Jan 0.3%, f/c 2.36%, 3%-prev
- MX Industrial Output MM Jan -0.4%, f/c 0.53%, -0.3%-prev
- BR Retail Sales MM Jan 0.8%, f/c -0.5%, -2.6%-prev
- BR Retail Sales YY Jan 0.6%, f/c -0.9%, 0.3%-prev
- German FinMin said it was a positive sign that Greece had begun talks with the EC, ECB & IMF, but there would be "no blank check" for Athens
- EU'S Moscovici warns Grexit could be the beginning of the end (Der Spiegel)
- S&P ECB ratings affirmed at 'AAA/A-1+; outlook stable
- S&P Sweden ratings affirmed at 'AAA/A-1+; outlook stable
- Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund will continue to sell down its European government debt portfolio & may spend all of its new cash inflow in 2015 on real estate investments
- S&P - "consider it highly unlikely that Greece will regain market access to alternative funding sources in the coming months"
- S&P - Greek government's liquidity position is increasingly stretched, requiring additional funding commitments in the second quarter of 2015
- Russian CB cuts key rate to 14%, says structural factors continue to restrict econ growth
- Greece will auction EUR1b of three-month treasury bills on March 18 to refinance a maturing issue
- Turkey's CB is expected to resist political pressure for a rate cut next week, Twenty of 21 economists see rates on hold next Tuesday
- The Brazilian government will not use its foreign reserves to limit the slide of the real as it does not consider the currency's sharp sell-off as resulting from a capital flight (FinMin source)
- No Significant Data
- Australia RBA Asst Governor Guy Debelle speaks at the Kanga News DCM Summit
- Japan Bank of Japan begins monetary policy meeting, Rate decision Tuesday
FX Recap
USD/JPY: USD/JPY still unable to surpass the 122.00 handle so far. Market expectations for a hawkish tone in the FOMC meeting next week and a potential lift off for rates in June has been bolstering the USD upside. But for the week, USD is trading almost unchanged vs. the Japanese yen. USD/JPY is finding decent support around the 118.00 handle in mid-February and pushing higher since then. Currently the pair is up 0.01% at 121.28. Resistances are seen at 121.67 (high ) ahead of 122.04 (2015 high ) and then 123.00 (psychological level). On the downside, supports lie at 120.66 (low ), 120.62 (low Mar.9) and finally 119.90 (low Mar.6). Option expiries for Monday 16th March: 120.50 (936M), 121.50 (485M)
EUR/CHF: Euro declined across the board, pushing EUR/CHF pair to the lowest level in a month. The pair lost more than a hundred ips during the American session, bottomed at 1.0512, the worst weekly performance since the week of January 15. The pair is currently trading at 1.0535, with recoveries being capped at 1.0800 area. Next week, the Swiss National Bank will have the monetary policy meeting. Some analysts speculate that the central bank could announced a rate cut.
USD/CAD: USD/CAD cooling a bit after hitting fresh 6-year highs at 1.2828. The pair is now returning to the 1.2800 neighbourhood. The strong USD rally keeps pushing the cross to fresh highs. Collaborating with the upside, crude oil prices continue to fall weighing on the Canadian dollar. The pair is up 0.80% on the at 1.2788 and a breakout of 1.2825 (2015 high ) would open the door to 1.2845 (high 2009) and then 1.2900 (psychological level). On the flip side, immediate support lies at 1.2617 (low ) ahead of 1.2598 (low ) and finally 1.2574 (low Mar.9). Option expiries for Monday 16th March: 1.2800 (215M), 1.2850 (220M).
EUR/USD: Euro is under pressure and hit fresh daily lows. EUR/USD was unable to hold above 1.0500 and fell to 1.0464, the lowest level since Jan 2013. For the week the pair is down over 350 pips and is on track to post the third weekly decline in a row. Monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Fed weghing. While the ECB started the expanded purchase program on Monday, the Federal Reserve is expected to give signals of a rate hike. Option expiries for Monday 16th March: 1.0500 (890M), 1.0575 (370M), 1.0600 (1.2BLN), 1.0650 (462M)
AUD/USD: AUD/USD is lower on a broad based strong dollar, but the Aussie is holding up relatively well. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7626 with a high of 0.7710 and a low of 0.7609. The pair is now testing support ahead of the psychological 0.76 level. Appears market is cruising into the RBA's preferred range of between 0.75 and 0.7550. Aussie is holding up relatively well amongst its counterparts, with only a partial correction of yesterdays gains. On the downside supports are at 0.7528 then 0.7183, 61.8% retracement of the move up from 2001.
