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America's Roundup: Dollar steady ahead of Fed meeting, Wall Street gains, Gold slips, Oil prices fall 1% as economic worries outweigh tanker tensions-June 18th, 2019

• Boris Johnson gets boost in race to become Britain's new PM

• Pound falls to 5-1/2 month low as Johnson's lead grows

• Iran says it will breach uranium limit, U.S. denounces 'nuclear blackmail'

• U.S. firms say China tariffs will raise costs, with few sourcing alternatives

• Fed likely to resist pressure to cut U.S. rates this week

• Gold slips as rate cut expectations ease ahead of Fed meet

• US Jun NAHB Housing Market Index, 64, 67 f'orecast, 66 previous

 Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT) 

• 23:00 Japan Jun Reuters Tankan DI, 12 previous

• 01:30 May China House Prices YY, 10.7% previous

• 01:30 Australia Q1 Home Price Index, -2.4% previous

 Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT) 

• N/A U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on interest rates (to June 19) in Washington D.C.

• N/A  Italian Finance and Economy Minister Giovanni Tria delivers a speech at the Global Borrowers and Bond Investors Forum in London

• 0800 ECB President Mario Draghi delivers introductory speech on Central Banking 2019 "20 Years of European Economic and Monetary Union" in Sintra, Portugal

• 0830 ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in chairing a session in Sintra, Portugal

• 1030 ECB executive board member Philip Lane participates in chairing a panel in Sintra, Portugal

• 1100 National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kazimir holds first news conference on updated forecasts in Bratislava

• 1400 ECB President Mario Draghi participates in policy panel at ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019 "20 Years of European Economic and Monetary Union" in Sintra, Portugal

Currency summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday, as investors reconsidered how dovish the Federal Reserve is likely to be at this week's policy meeting. Broader currency markets were quiet, as traders hesitated to put on large positions before the Fed's two-day meeting, a meeting of European Central Bank policymakers in Portugal and the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday. The euro was up 0.10 percent at $1.1218. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was up 0.11 at 97.55. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1273 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1346 (Higher Bollinger Band).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1200 (Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1160 (3rd June Low).


GBP/USD:The pound extended decline against the dollar on Monday, as concern grew that Britain was heading for a no-deal Brexit after Boris Johnson got a boost in his bid to replace Prime Minister Theresa May.Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who dropped out of the race on Friday after winning just 20 votes in the first ballot of Conservative lawmakers, said Johnson was the best candidate to lead the party. Johnson, the face of the official Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum, has promised to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU with or without an agreement by Oct. 31. The pound was steady against the dollar, around $1.2537. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2555 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2577 (50% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2523 (23.6% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500 (Psychological level).

USD/CAD:The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, paring some of last week's decline ahead of a speech by a Bank of Canada official and as investors awaited a Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the week. Bank of Canada deputy governor Lawrence Schembri will speak about renewing the central bank's inflation target. The central bank, which will publish Schembri's prepared remarks at 14:30 ET (1830 GMT), said last month there was evidence that a slowdown in the domestic economy was temporary, signaling it would remain on the sidelines as it monitors economic developments. At   (2004 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3412 to the greenback, . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3424 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500 (Psycholical Level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3409 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350 (100 DMA).

USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen on Monday, as investors to reassessed whether the Federal Reserve will sound as dovish as expected at this week's monetary policy meeting.  Strong U.S. retail sales on Friday reduced the chances of a rate cut this week and lifted the dollar, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to leave open the possibility of future rate cuts. Positioning data point to a scaling back of investors' dollar long positions, although only to levels seen in March. Expectations of an rate cut at the Fed's June 18-19 meeting fell from 28.3% on Thursday to 21.7% after the retail data, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, bets for monetary easing at the July meeting remain at 85%.At (2009 GMT), the dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen at 108.68. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.98 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.17 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.16 (14th June Low), a break below could take the pair towards 107 .82 (Jan 4th low). 

Equities Recap

European stock markets closed marginally lower on Monday with a profit warning from Germany's Lufthansa hitting airline stocks, while markets globally awaited clues from the U.S. Federal Reserve on its policy direction.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.2 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax ended flat, and France’s CAC finished the up by 0.6 percent.

Wall Street climbed on Monday, with Facebook, Apple and Amazon leading the way, as investors awaited a key Federal Reserve meeting that is expected to lay the groundwork for an interest rate cut later this year.

Dow Jones closed up by 1.39 percent, S&P 500 ended up 1.32 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 1.03 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday in choppy trading, weighed down by softer-than-expected U.S. economic data and persistent pressure from the trade conflict with China, as investors brace for this week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.085% from 2.094% late on Friday.Yields on U.S. 30-year bonds slipped to 2.576%, from 2.593% on Friday.On the short end of the curve, however, U.S. 2-year yields were up at 1.864% from Friday's 1.851%.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices slipped further on Monday after sliding from a more-than-14-month high the previous session on upbeat U.S. economic data that dampened expectations the Federal Reserve could ease interest rates.

Spot gold edged 0.2% lower to $1,338.90 per ounce at 1:34 p.m. EDT (1734 GMT). Prices had surged to $1,358.04 on Friday, the highest since April 11, 2018.U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,342.90 per ounce.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday after more poor Chinese economic figures fanned fears of lower worldwide oil demand.

Brent crude futures lost $1.07 to settle at $60.94 a barrel, a 1.73 percent loss. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 58 cents to settle at $51.93 a barrel, a 1.10 percent loss.
 

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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

Actual

50 %

Forecast

Previous

48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 774175774175m

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January 31 00:00 UTC 774175774175m

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Actual

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January 22 19:00 UTC 785995785995m

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