Market Roundup
•Canada Oct Housing Starts 236.6K,255.0K forecast, 251.2K previous
•US Oct Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 1.4%,0.7% previous
•US Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.7%,1.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Export Price Index (MoM) 1.5%,0.9%,0.1% previous
•US Oct Import Price Index (MoM) 1.2%, 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) 1.7%, 1.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) Oct 16.31%,13.95% previous
•US Oct Retail Control (MoM) 1.6%, 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 14.7%,15.6% previous
•US Oct Capacity Utilization Rate 76.4%,75.8% forecast, 75.2% previous
•US Oct Industrial Production (YoY) 5.14%, 4.62% previous
•US Oct Industrial Production (MoM) 1.6%,0.7% forecast, -1.3% previous
•US GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1.9% ,4.3% previous
•US Sep Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.7%,0.6% previous
•US Sep Business Inventories (MoM) 0.7%,0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•US Nov NAHB Housing Market Index 83,80 forecast, 80 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•00:30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q3) 2.2% forecast, 1.7% previous
•00:30 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Tuesday as dollar rose after data showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected last month. Retail sales overall and control group were up 1.7% and 1.6% in October, helped by early holiday shopping to avoid potential shortages and bolstered by the 0.9% rise in CPI in October. The dollar has rallied since U.S. inflation data last week showed consumer prices surged to their highest rate since 1990, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1373 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1424 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1311(23.6 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1300(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound initially gained on Tuesday after upbeat UK jobs data but erased some of its earlier gains after data showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October. Upbeat jobs data is enough to suggest the BOE's concerns about post-furlough programme employment trends would be allayed enough for a rate hike in December. The BoE could be the first major central bank to raise interest rates, but whether that initial increase comes as soon as next month or early next year has divided economists. The pound was up 0.1% at $1.3426 versus a strengthening dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3459 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3476 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3386 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3352 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as the greenback broadly climbed and a senior Bank of Canada official said there was a lot of uncertainty about when slack in the economy will be absorbed. The Bank of Canada still expects economic slack to be absorbed in the middle quarters of 2022, but that does not necessarily mean in the second quarter, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said, potentially dashing market hopes of an early rate hike. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.2555 to the greenback , after trading in a range of 1.2492 to 1.2565. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2591 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2641 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2547 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2503 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after retail sales data signaled solid consumer health and eased worries about a Federal Reserve that may have to become more aggressive in the face of rising inflation. Data showed retail sales jumped 1.7% in October, the largest gain since March and above the 1.4% estimate, indicating Americans have begun holiday shopping early in an effort to avoid a shortage of goods amid stretched supply chains. Strong resistance can be seen at 114.92 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 115.48 (23.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 114.49 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 114.07 (61.8% fib).
Equities Recap
Some European stock indexes extended their record rally on Tuesday, boosted by shares of Dutch technology investor Prosus and French luxury group Kering and lifted by optimism over easing in U.S.-China tensions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.34percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.34 percent.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday as earnings from Home Depot and retail sales data signaled solid consumer health and eased worries about a Federal Reserve that may have to become more aggressive in the face of rising inflation.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.15 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.39 percent, Nasdaq ended up by 0.76 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday in choppy trading after data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in October and before the U.S. Treasury's sale of 20-year bonds on Wednesday.
Benchmark 10-year note yields gained a basis point on the day to 1.63% and were up from 1.61% before the retail sales data was released. Twenty-year bond yields were last at 2.06% while 30-year yields were at 2.02%.
Commodities Recap
Gold retreated on Tuesday from a more than five-month peak as upbeat U.S. retail sales data for October strengthened the dollar, making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $1,851.80 per ounce by 13:41 ET (1841 GMT), having earlier hit $1,876.90, its highest since June 14.U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $1,854.10.
Oil prices settled mixed on Tuesday, as prospects of tight inventories worldwide were offset by forecasts of a production increase in coming months and concerns over rising coronavirus cases in Europe.
Brent crude rose 38 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.76 a barrel.
