Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.947%,1.985% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.042%, 2.057% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.011% ,2.023% previous
• US Leading Index (MoM) (Apr) -0.7% forecast, -0.7% previous
• US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.285%,4.300% previous
• US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.140%, 4.105% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:00 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (May) 3.50% forecast,-3.60% previous
• 01:15 China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00% forecast,-3.10% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 04:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (May) 3.85% previous
• 04:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy
Statement previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on amid concerns about the U.S. debt load and a tax-cut bill, following Moody's downgrade of the country's sovereign credit rating.Late on Friday, Moody's Investors Service cut the United States' sovereign credit rating from the top triple-A rank, highlighting the country's deteriorating fiscal outlook. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used television interviews on Sunday to dismiss the downgrade. Some Federal Reserve officials on Monday commented on U.S. markets following the downgrade. Speaking at a conference held by the Mortgage Bankers Association in New York, New York Fed President John Williams said investors are "clearly" weighing future options. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1330(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1462(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1151(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1060(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially gained but gave up some ground as investors digested US-EU trade deal and awaited UK CPI data. Britain and the European Union have finalized a landmark agreement marking the most significant reset of trade and defense relations since Brexit. Nearly nine years after the UK voted to leave the bloc, the new deal reflects a joint effort to move beyond years of tension, accelerated in part by geopolitical uncertainty during former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tenure.The wide-ranging agreement includes a formal security and defense pact, reduced barriers for British food exporters and travelers to the EU, and a new, and potentially controversial, arrangement on fishing rights. The pact signals a strategic shift toward deeper cooperation in response to evolving global challenges. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3405(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3217(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3164(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar pared back earlier gains on Monday as the market's initial reaction to Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating began to subside. Late Friday, Moody's Investors Service cut the United States’ rating from the top-tier 'Aaa' to 'Aa1', citing concerns over the nation’s worsening fiscal outlook. Outside of the release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, the macroeconomic calendar was largely quiet. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious stance, reiterating their "wait and see" approach as they continue to evaluate incoming economic data. The loonie was trading 0.06% lower at 1.3959 per U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4018 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4063 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3856(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3734 (Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar recovered from one-week low against the yen on Monday as markets absorbed the surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating. On Friday, Moody’s lowered the United States’ top sovereign credit rating by one notch, becoming the last major agency to do so, citing concerns over the nation’s escalating $36 trillion debt.The downgrade ended the dollar’s four-week winning streak, which had been fueled by optimism around U.S. trade deals and improving relations with China that helped ease fears of a global recession. Following the downgrade, the dollar weakened against most major currencies, including the yen.Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.36 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.56(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.56(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.88(61.8%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks ended flat on Monday, pausing after a five-week winning streak, as losses triggered by a surprise U.S. credit rating downgrade were balanced by encouraging corporate earnings reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.70 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.04 percent.
U.S. stocks finished near the unchanged mark on Monday with market sentiment weakened by the downgrade of the federal government's perfect sovereign credit rating owing to its huge debt profile.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.32 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.09 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.02% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices drifted higher on Monday, steered by a softer dollar and safe-haven demand after Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,229.51 an ounce by 1315 ET (1715 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $3,233.5.
Oil prices ended slightly higher as signs of an impasse in U.S. talks with Iran over its nuclear program offset Moody's downgrade.
Brent crude futures settled 13 cents higher at $65.54 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed up 20 cents at $62.69 a barrel. Both contracts rose more than 1% last week.
