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  |   Market Roundups


America’s Roundup: Dollar pulls back as markets reassess Fed interest rate path, Wall Street ends higher, Gold edges higher, Oil settles up but posts a weekly decline on recession worries-June 25th,2022

Market Roundup

•EU Jun Belgium NBB Business Climate-1.8, 1.8 previous

•US Jun Michigan Current Conditions 5.3%,55.4 previous

•US New May Home Sales (MoM) 10.7%, -16.6% previous

•US Jun Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations  3.10%,3.30% previous

•US Jun Michigan Consumer Expectations 47.5,46.8 previous

•US May New Home Sales 696K,588K forecast, 591K previous

•US Jun Michigan Inflation Expectations 5.3%,5.4% previous

•US Jun Michigan Consumer Sentiment 50.0, 50.2 forecast,50.2 previous

•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 753,740 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

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EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as weaker greenback supported euro but disappointing German Ifo data kept gains in check. German business morale fell more than expected in June but a recession was not yet in sight despite rising energy prices and the threat of gas shortages, a survey showed on Friday. The Ifo institute said its business climax index dropped to 92.3 following a reading of 93.0 in May, when the closely watched indicator posted a surprise recovery despite the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. The euro climbed 0.24% to 1.0553 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0560 (14DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0595(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0492(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0447(June 17th low).

GBP/USD: Sterling ticked up against dollar Friday as a weaker greenback and better-than-expected retail data allowed investors to look past mounting pressure on British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Data on Friday showed retail sales volumes in May fell by 0.5% on the month, a slightly smaller decline than the 0.7% drop expected by economists. Sterling was not particularly affected by the news that Johnson's Conservatives had lost two seats in Parliament, a  blow to the ruling party that led to the party leader's resignation. By 18:46 GMT, the pound rose 0.24% against the dollar at $1.2291. The currency is up 0.59% on the week to the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2311(5DMA),an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2393 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2222(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2267(June 22nd low).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged rose against its U.S. counterpart on Friday  as weaker dollar and higher oil prices boosted loonie across the board. Oil costs settled up by over $3 a barrel on Friday, supported by tight supply, however they notched their second weekly decline on concern that rising interest rates might push the globe economy into recession. U.S. August crude  futures rose $3.35 to settle at $107.62 a barrel on Friday​. The loonie was trading 0.75% higher at C$1.2893 to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.2901 to 1.3006 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2949 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2993(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2889 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2790 (50%fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Friday as traders pared back bets on where interest rates may peak and brought forward their outlook on the timing of rate cuts to counter a possible recession. The safe-haven dollar fell further after data showed new home sales rose 10.7% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 696,000 units. May sales pace  revised  to 629,000 units from  previously reported 591,000 units. The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey showed mixed results, with sentiment deteriorating to 50 in June  from last reading 58 in May. But five-year inflation expectations fell to 3.1% from the flash estimate of 3.3%  in mid-June.  Strong resistance can be seen at 135.73 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 136.56(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 134.20(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.95(50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks rose 2.6% on Friday  as investors began trimming bets on central bank tightening, spurring inflows into risky assets.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by  2.68 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.59 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 3.28 percent.                

Wall Street's main indices rose in a broad rally on Friday, as signs of a slowdown in economic growth and a recent drop in commodity prices dampened expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans.

 Dow Jones was ended up by 2.15 percent, S&P 500 was ended up by 2.33 percent, Nasdaq ended  up by 3.34 percent.

Treasuries Recap

Treasury yields rose from a two-week low on Friday as investors weighed the likelihood that the Federal Reserve could trigger an economic slowdown as it aggressively hikes interest rates  to curb rising inflation.

Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 3.125%. They have fallen from 3.498% on June 14, the highest since April 2011.  

Two-year Treasury yields were at 3.053%, down from 3.456% on June 14, which was the highest since November 2007.  

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Friday as the dollar fell and recession fears reinforced its safe haven appeal, but looming interest rate hikes sent the non-yielding  asset into a weekly slide.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,830.22 per ounce by 2:20 p.m. ET (1820 GMT), after earlier touching a one-week low of $1,816.10. U.S. gold futures settled up at $1,830.3.

Oil prices settled above $3 a barrel on Friday, helped by tight supply, but posted their second weekly decline on concerns that rising interest rates could push the global economy into recession.

Brent crude settled up $3.07, or 2.8%, at $113.12 a barrel by 12:10 p.m. EDT (1610 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up $3.35, or 3.2%, at $107.62.

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