|   Technicals


  |   Technicals


America’s Roundup: Dollar gains on hawkish Fed messages, Wall Street ends lower, Gold dips, Oil prices fall as market weighs mixed supply signals-April 15th,2022

•US Mar Retail Sales (MoM)  0.5%,0.6% forecast, 0.3% previous

•US Mar Continuing Jobless Claims 1,475K ,1,500K forecast, 1,523K previous

•US Mar Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg  172.25K ,170.00K previous

•US Initial Jobless Claims 185K ,171K       forecast, 166K previous

•Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 4.2%,  3.6% forecast, 0.6% previous

•US Mar Retail Sales (YoY)   6.88% ,17.62% previous

•US Mar Import Price Index (MoM)  2 2.6%,.3% forecast,1.4% previous

•US Mar Export Price Index (MoM)  4.5% ,2.2% forecast, 3.0% previous

•US Mar Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.1%,  1.0% forecast,0.2% previous

•US Feb  Wholesale Sales (MoM)  -0.4% ,0.9% forecast,                4.2% previous

•US Apr Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations   3.00% previous

•US Feb  Retail Inventories Ex Auto  0.2% , -0.4% previous           

•US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment  65.7  ,59.0 forecast, 59.4 previous

•US Apr Michigan Consumer Expectations 64.1 , 54.2 forecast ,54.3 previous

•US Feb Business Inventories (MoM)  1.5% ,1.3% forecast , 1.1% previous

•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 546 previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

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Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency Summaries


EUR/USD: The euro plunged to a two-year low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde were viewed as a sign that the ECB was in no rush to raise interest rates, in contrast with an aggressive monetary policy tightening effort by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Lagarde said there was no clear timeframe for when rates would start to rise, adding that it could be weeks or even several months after the end of the ECB’s stimulus scheme.The ECB on Thursday concluded its latest meeting with cautious steps to unwind support and avoided a hard schedule. The European single currency fell to $1.0758, the lowest level since April 2020. It was last down 0.53% at $1.0827. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0860(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0935 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0760 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0718 (Lower BB).

GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Thursday as investors were worried that aggressive U.S. policy tightening could hurt the economy, while the European Central Bank signalled a steady reduction of stimulus.The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped, following two days of declines, after a flurry of economic data such as retail sales and jobless claims and as the ECB signalled less aggressive tightening plans than expected. The dollar index rose 0.755%, with the euro down 0.85% to $1.0793. Sterling was last trading at $1.3047, down 0.52% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3111(21DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3150 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3033  (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2949(Lower BB).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as bond yields jumped and the U.S. currency broadly climbed, with the loonie pulling back from its strongest level in more than one week. The currency touched its strongest intraday level since April 6 at 1.2522, with the move coming after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised interest rates by half a percentage point  its biggest single move in more than two decades. Domestic data for February showed that wholesale trade decreased 0.4% from the previous month, missing analyst estimates of a 0.9% gain, and that factory sales grew by 4.2%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2650(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2677(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2582 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2508(23.6%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday   as investors geared up for U.S. interest rate hikes. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that the U.S. Federal Reserve should reasonably consider raising interest rates by a half percentage point at its next meeting in May, which was seen as a further sign that even more cautious policymakers are on board with bigger rate hikes. The Japanese yen weakened 0.20% versus the greenback to 125.90 per dollar, Strong resistance can be seen at 126.71(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 127.00 (Psychological level).On the downside,immediate support is seen at 125.71(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 124.99(38.2%fib).

Equities Recap

European shares rose on Thursday as the ECB kept its policy stance largely unchanged and signalled a steady reduction of stimulus over the coming months, spurring money markets to trim rate hike bets for the year.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by  0.47 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.62 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.72 percent.                

Wall Street stocks finished lower  on Thursday as investors worried about the potential for aggressive U.S. policy tightening as other central banks around the world moved to reduce support..

Dow Jones closed down by  0.33% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.21% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.14%  percent.

Treasuries Recap

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped on Thursday following two days of declines after a flurry of economic data and a policy announcement from the European Central Bank about its tightening plans was less aggressive than anticipated.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes   was up 8.7 basis points to 2.776% and was on pace for its biggest daily basis point climb since April 5.

Commodities Recap

Gold eased on Thursday after the dollar strengthened and yields rose as investors geared up for U.S. interest rate hikes, but safe-haven demand triggered by the Ukraine crisis and mounting inflation kept bullion on track for a weekly gain.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,971.04 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. ET (1745 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5% at $1,974.9.

Oil prices slipped on Thursday in thin trade ahead of a public holiday, as traders weighed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil stocks against tightening global supply.

Brent futures were down 86 cents, or 0.8%, at $107.92 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were off $1.10 or 1.1%, at $103.15 a barrel at 1335 GMT.

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