Market Roundup
• Virus surges in U.S., new restrictions considered
• Dollar stronger in FX markets
• Brent slips back under $40 a barrel
• Disney shares slipped as it delayed reopening theme parks
• Apple announces closing of 14 stores in Florida due to virus
• US May Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 4.0%, 2.5% forecast, -7.7% previous
• US May Goods Trade Balance -74.34B, -70.73B previous
• US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1) -12.4%,-14.2% previous
• US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -1.2% , 0.3% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 1,480K,1,300K forecast, 1,508K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 19,522K, 19,968K forecast, 20,544K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 1,620.75K, 1,773.50K previous
• US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 15.5%, -16.6% previous
• US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto -1.5%, -1.1% previous
• US May Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 2.3%, 1.0% forecast, -6.1% previous
• US May Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 15.8%, 10.9% forecast,-17.7% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 1.6%, 1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q1) 1.70%, 1.60% forecast, 1.60% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q1) 1.3%, 1.3% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q1) -3.5%, -3.7% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q1) -6.8%,-6.8% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -5.0%,-5.0% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 567.8B,570.8B previous
• US June KC Fed Composite Index 1, -19 previous
• US June KC Fed Manufacturing Index 2,-25 previous
Looking Ahead – Economic data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan June CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) 0.1% previous
• 23:50 Japan June Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 23:50 Japan June Tokyo CPI (YoY) 0.4% previous
Currencies Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Thursday on safety buying of greenback increased as fears grew over a rapid rise in coronavirus infections in some U.S. states and as trade tensions between the United States and the European Union increased. The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut on Wednesday ordered travelers from eight other U.S. states to be quarantined for two weeks on arrival, as COVID-19 infections asurged in regions spared the brunt of the initial outbreak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1254 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1349 (23rd June high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1151 (30 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1122 (38.2% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling gained against dollar on Thursday as traders bought back into the currency following its recent run lower, although worries about a second wave of COVID-19 infections and negotiations over a Brexit deal kept the rebound in check. Analysts said there was no specific new development that pushed the pound higher, but with European equities steadying after earlier falls and some calm returning to markets, sterling was able to claw its way upwards. The British currency was last up 0.3% at $1.2418 against a dollar. Before a sharp drop on Wednesday, the pound had traded around $1.254. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2521 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2543 (14 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2313 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2245 (Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped to a 10-day low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, as investors digested the loss of one of Canada's triple-A ratings and worried that a rise in American coronavirus cases could slow economic recovery. Fitch on Wednesday cut Canada's rating to "AA+" from "AAA," making it the first time since August 2004 that the ratings agency did not give Canada top marks. Canada had been one of a handful of countries with a AAA rating from all three of the main agencies. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3650 to the greenback. The currency touched its weakest intraday level since June 15 at 1.3670. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3703 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3737 (50 %fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3625 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3559 (14DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Thursday as a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and an IMF warning of an almost 5% plunge in the global economy increased safe haven demand. In the United States, Florida, Oklahoma and South Carolina reported record increases in new cases on Wednesday and Australia posted its biggest daily rise in two months.The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut ordered travellers from eight other states to quarantine on arrival, a worry for investors who had mostly been expecting an end to pandemic restrictions. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.38 (50 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 108.12 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.71 (61.8% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 106.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed higher on Thursday, as improving economic data and more support from the European Central Bank helped lift sentiment, while shares in Germany’s Lufthansa jumped after a top shareholder backed a government bailout.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down up at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax settled up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.97 percent.
Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher in choppy trading on Thursday, with bank stocks soaring ahead of annual stress test results and helping to offset investor jitters over alarming increases in new coronavirus cases.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.18 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 1.18 percent, Nasdaq ended up by 1.09 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as traders bought safe-haven assets while the COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread and layoffs stayed high.
The benchmark 10-year yield was down 2.5 basis points at 0.6593%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices drifted sideways on Thursday as a surge in coronavirus cases and mounting economic tolls kept investors on edge, though the metal stepped back from last session's more than 7-1/2-year high.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,762.11 per ounce as of 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT), after hitting its highest level since October 2012 at $1,779.06 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $1,770.60.
Oil prices rose about 2% in a volatile session on Thursday, buoyed by signs of a marginal improvement in the U.S. economy and a tepid rise in fuel demand, but price gains were limited by rising cases of COVID-19 in some U.S. states.
Brent crude rose 74 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $41.05 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended the session up 71 cents, or 1.9%, at $38.72.
