Market Roundup
• Fed is falling short on inflation goal, U.S. central banker warns
• German consumer morale darkens unexpectedly - GfK
• U.S. House panel OKs move to give Congress records of FBI probes against Trump
• Weaker than ever, UK PM May tries to force her Brexit deal through
• Former UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson edging towards backing UK PM May's deal, "If we vote it down again, there is an appreciable and growing sense that we will not leave at all-Telegraph
• US Feb Building Permits: Number, 1.296 mln, 1.300 mln forecast, 1.317 mln previous
• US Feb Housing Starts Number, 1.162 mln, 1.213 mln forecast, 1.230 mln previous, 1.273 mln revised
• US Feb Monthly Home Price YY, 5.6%, 5.6% previous
• US Mar Consumer Confidence, 124.1, 132.0 forecast, 131.4 previous
• US Mar Rich Fed Comp. Index, 10, 16 previous
• Argentina's peso hit by political uncertainty, plumbs new lows
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 27 Mar 01:00 New Zealand 27 Mar Cash Rate, 1.75% forecast, 1.75% previous
• 27 Mar 01:30 China Feb Industrial profit YY, -1.90% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 08:00 ECB President Mario Draghi address at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX' in Frankfurt, Germany
• 08:00 ECB President Mario Draghi, Vice President Luis De Guindos, Chief Economist Peter Praet, and board member Yves Mersch speak at the The ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt
• 08:45 ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet participates in debate 1 'Next Steps in Policy Normalization' at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX' in Fankfurt, Germany
• 08:45 Norway Central Bank Governor Oystein Olsen gives a speech in Banco de Mocambique in Maputo
• 09:30 Speech by ECB supervisor Pentti Hakkarainen on "Central banking and banking supervision in today's financial markets" organised by Sveriges Riksbank in Stockholm, Sweden
• 10:00 ECB Executive board member Sabine Lautenschlager participates in a panel discussion on "New challenges for cross border banking" at the 10 Years Vienna Initiative - Anniversary Conference 2019 in Vienna, Austria
• 10:45 ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in debate 2 'International Spillovers of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Concerns' at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX' in Frankfurt, Germany
• 13:30 ECB Executive board member Yves Mersch participates in debate 3 'Challenges to Central Bank Independence' at the conference 'The ECB and Its Watchers XX' in Frankfurt, Germany
• 16:00 Federal Reserve issues annual benchmark revisions to its U.S industrial production and capacity use data from 1972 through March 2019 in Washington D.C.
• 17:30 Governor of Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks on "Europe faces the challenge of growth" in Geneva
• 23:00 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before the Money Marketeers of New York University Inc.in New York
• N/A ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger and Austrian central bank chief Ewald Nowotny to speak at a conference in Vienna.
• N/A Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces official cash rate (OCR) in wellington
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as greenback strengthened as benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury debt yields rebounded from 15-month lows due to stock gains on Wall Street as investors brushed aside disappointing domestic data on housing starts and consumer confidence. The euro was up 0.42 percent at $1.1263.An index that tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies was 0.30 percent higher at 96.81. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1300 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1335 (61.8% retracement level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1271 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1232 (23.6% retracement level).
GBP/USD: Pound gained against the dollar on Tuesday, after two eurosceptic lawmakers indicated they might agree to support British Prime Minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal deal rather than risk the UK parliament cancelling Brexit.The comments follow parliament's move to take control of the Brexit process, raising expectations that lawmakers can end an impasse on Britain's European Union exit, with the possibility of a longer Brexit delay or a second referendum. Immediate resistance can be seen at 13232 (23.6% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3308 (March 19th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3143(38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3067 (50% retracement level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar gained against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, as stocks and oil prices rose, with the loonie steadying after it was pressured in the last three sessions by worries about the economic outlook. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose as OPEC supply cuts and expectations of lower U.S. inventories outweighed concern about weaker demand due to an economic slowdown. The Canadian dollar was last trading 0.13 % higher at 1.3240 to the greenback. The currency earlier matched Tuesday's low of 1.3264, which was its weakest in nearly four months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3442 (38.2% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3500 (psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370 (50% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3297 (61.8% retracement level).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday, as the dollar rebounded from a sell-off triggered by fears the United States economy is heading for recession. On Monday, the yen gained on renewed fears that economic growth in developed markets was set to contract after an inversion of the U.S. yield curve and poor manufacturing data from Germany and Japan.The dollar was 0.55 highher versus the Japanese yen at 110.55. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.90 (50% retracement level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.22 (100 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.37 (38.2% retracement level), a break below could take the pair towards 109.69 (23.6% retracement level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, boosted by healthcare stocks and on indications that UK Prime Minister Theresa May's deal to exit the European Union could gain some support.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.37 percent, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 0.83 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.65 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.90 percent.
U.S. stocks gained on Tuesday, with financials snapping a five-day losing streak as Treasury yields stabilized above 15-month lows.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.55 percent, S&P 500 ended up 0.72 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 6.90 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were steady on the day on Tuesday, but above 15-month lows reached on Monday as risk assets showed signs of stabilization after two days of weakness.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last 2.414, steady on the day but above the 2.377 percent level reached on Monday, which was the lowest since December 2017.
Commodities Recap
Oil rose nearly 2 percent on Tuesday as attention centered on geopolitical factors tightening supplies that are leading to falling exports from Venezuela and declining U.S. inventories.
Brent settled up 76 cents at $67.97 a barrel, not far below its 2019 high of $68.69 reached on March 21.
U.S. crude futures' gains were sharper, rising $1.12, or 1.9 percent, to $59.94 a barrel, ahead of weekly inventory data.
Gold retreated on Tuesday from more than three-week highs in the previous session after the dollar rebounded and risk appetite and bond yields recovered as fears eased about a possible U.S. recession.
Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,313.82 per ounce as of 13:55 p.m. EDT (1755 GMT), after hitting its highest since Feb. 28 at $1,324.33 on Monday.U.S. gold futures settled down 0.6 percent to $1,315 per ounce.
