Market Roundup
•US job growth rebounds in November; unemployment rate rises
•US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Nov) 4.0%, 3.9% forecast, 4.0% previous
•US Average Weekly Hours (Nov) 34.3, 34.3 forecast, 34.2 previous
•US Government Payrolls (Nov) 33.0K, 38.0K previous
•US Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov) 22K, 28K forecast, -48K previous
•US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 227K, 202K forecast, 36K previous
•US Participation Rate (Nov) 62.5%, 62.7% forecast, 62.6% previous
•US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) 194K, 160K forecast, -2K previous
•US U6 Unemployment Rate (Nov) 7.8%, 7.7% previous
•US Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.1% previous
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Nov) 3.9%, 4.9% previous
•Canada Employment Change (Nov) 50.5K, 25.0K forecast, 14.5K previous
•Canada Full Employment Change (Nov) 54.2K, 25.6K previous
•Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Nov) -3.6K, -11.2K previous
•Canada Participation Rate (Nov) 65.1%, 64.8% previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Nov) 6.8%, 6.6% forecast, 6.5% previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 2.9%, 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 3.1%, 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec) 71.6, 76.9 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 74.0, 73.1 forecast, 71.8 previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Dec) 77.7, 63.9 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Nov) 49.7, 52.2 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI (Nov) 52.3, 53.1 forecast, 52.0 previous
•US Consumer Credit (Oct) 19.24B, 10.10B forecast, 3.21B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday as investors increased bets on a potential U.S. interest rate cut this month, following the release of strong payrolls data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 in November, following a revised 36,000 increase in October. The University of Michigan Surveys showed consumer sentiment surpassing expectations, while one-year inflation expectations rose by three-tenths. Traders now see an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, up from a 72% chance before the payrolls report. Federal Reserve officials have signaled support for a more gradual pace of rate cuts, in contrast to the European Central Bank, which has shown little indication of easing its tightening stance despite Europe’s ongoing economic challenges. The euro was last down about 0.4% at $1.054. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0624(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0744(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0477(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0380(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped against the dollar on Friday after U.S. payrolls data showed job growth in November came in roughly as expected. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000, following an upwardly revised increase of 36,000 in October. The data pointed to a resilient labor market, which some analysts viewed as aligned with expectations and boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. Futures markets now place an 85% chance on a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting following the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2808(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2941 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2682(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2507(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday following a surge in Canada's unemployment rate, which raised expectations for another significant interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada next week. With 1.5 million unemployed in November, Canada's jobless rate surged to 6.8%, its highest level in nearly eight years, excluding the pandemic period. Investors now see an 80% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut from the BoC on December 11, up from 58% prior to the data. The loonie was trading 0.8% lower at 1.4140 against the U.S. dollar, approaching the 1.4177 level touched on November 26, its weakest since April 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4159(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4184 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4022(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3913(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Friday as investors digested a mixed U.S. jobs report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 jobs in November, following a revised increase of 36,000 in October. While the report showed stronger-than-expected job growth, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Analysts suggest the data supports the view that the U.S. is not heading into a recession, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.87 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.10 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.20(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.28(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Friday, with French shares posting their biggest rise in three weeks as investors considered the potential for a new budget amid ongoing political uncertainty.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.31percent.
U.S. stocks ended mixed on Friday as investors raised their bets on the prospect of a U.S. interest rate cut this month after payrolls data showed strong job growth in November.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.28% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.25% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.81% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday as the November U.S. job growth report indicated a gradual easing of the labor market, supporting expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,636.31 per ounce by 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,659.60.
Oil prices dropped by over 1% on Friday, extending weekly losses, as analysts predicted a supply surplus next year due to weak demand, despite OPEC+'s decision to delay output increases and maintain deep production cuts until the end of 2026.
Brent crude futures settled at $71.12 a barrel, shedding 97 cents, or 1.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $67.20 a barrel, falling $1.10, or 1.6%.
