Market Roundup
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,868K, 1,870K forecast, 1,863K previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 2.80%,2.90% forecast, 3.70% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q2) 1.7%,-2.7% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 3.0%, 2.8% forecast, 1.4%previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 2.5%, 2.3% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q2) 2.2%,2.0% forecast, 1.8% previous
•US Goods Trade Balance -102.66B,-97.70B forecast, -96.56B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 231K ,232K forecast, 232K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 231.50K,236.00Kprevious
•US Jul Pending Home Sales (MoM) -5.5%,0.2% forecast, 4.8% previous
•US Jul Pending Home Sales Index 70.2 , 74.3 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Jul Industrial Production (MoM) 3.6% forecast, -4.2% previous
• 23:50 Japan Jul Retail Sales (YoY) 2.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
•01:30 Australia Jul Housing Credit 0.4% previous
•01:30 Australia Jul Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•01:30 Australia Jul Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•05:00 Japan Jul Construction Orders (YoY) -19.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined against the dollar Thursday as euro was undermined overall by inflation data from Germany and Spain, which raised bets on the European Central Bank's rate easing outlook. Inflation fell in six key German states in August, indicating that national inflation could see a significant drop this month, while in Spain, it slowed to its lowest rate in a year. As a result, money markets adjusted to price in 67 basis points of ECB rate cuts for 2024, up from around 63 basis points before the data. The euro fell to a 10-day low of $1.1059, after hitting a 13-month high on Friday of $1.1201. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1134(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1184(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1070(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1047 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday after data showed the world's largest economy grew a little faster than expected in the second quarter.Thursday's data showed gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.0% annualised rate in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' second estimate. Investors now await Friday's release of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which could provide more clues on the size of the rate cut in September, including the pace of the incoming easing cycle. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3284(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3315(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3115(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, after an upward revision in U.S. economic growth allayed fears of a recession. U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter grew at a 3% annualized rate on higher consumer spending, quelling fears of an economic slowdown in the United States. Statistics Canada will be releasing second quarter GDP numbers on Friday, with most analysts expecting a 1.6% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth. The numbers are most likely to firm up expectations of another 25 basis point rate cut next week, bringing Bank of Canada's key policy rate to 4.25%.The Canadian dollar was trading down 0.03% at 1.347 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3497 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3536 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3432 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3400 (Psychological level).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar steadied against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors digested US GDP data and New Zealand's business confidence data in August. According to an ANZ Bank survey released on Thursday, business confidence in New Zealand reached its highest level in a decade, with a net 50.6% of respondents expecting economic improvement over the next year, up from 27.1% in July. This optimism was driven by a strong rise in forward-looking activity indicators. In late US session, the New Zealand dollar was trading at $0.6262, up 0.06% against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6233 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6180(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Thursday after better-than-expected U.S. economic data reduced expectations for a 50-basis point Federal Reserve interest rate cut and lifted the dollar. Second-estimate Q2 GDP growth came in at 3.0% versus 2.8% expected while initial jobless claims were 231k in the latest week, below the 232k forecast, though the previous week's result was revised 1k higher to 233k.In a separate report, jobless claims fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Aug. 24. Economists polled had forecast 232,000 claims for the week. Traders trimmed those bets after the data, according to CME's FedWatch, now seeing a 32% chance of a 50 bps cut versus 38% a day prior.Strong resistance can be seen at 145.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.56(38.2 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.75(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 142.28(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 rose on Thursday and Germany's DAX closed at a record high, led by tech stocks, after softer inflation data lifted hopes for interest-rate cuts and offset some disappointment around Nvidia's quarterly results.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.84 percent.
The Dow notched a record high close on Thursday in mixed trading following robust U.S. economic data, while artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia dropped after its largely in-line forecast failed to impress investors.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.59%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.00 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.21 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained around 1% on Thursday, fuelled by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September with investors focusing on U.S. inflation data for further insights on the potential size of the cut.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,524.45 per ounce by 1:52 p.m. ET (1752 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% higher at $2,560.3.
Oil prices settled up by more than a dollar a barrel on Thursday as supply disruptions in Libya and plans to lower output in Iraq raised fears of tighter global supplies.
Brent crude futures gained $1.29, or 1.6%, to settle at $79.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.39, or 1.9%, to $75.91 a barrel.
