Market Roundup
• US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.577%, 2.642% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.277%, 2.250% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.385%, 2.412% previous
•US House Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 1.7%, 1.7% previous
•US House Price Index (Mar) 441.5, 441.2 previous
•US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Mar) -0.2%, -0.1% previous
•US House Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.1%, 0.1% previous
•US CB Consumer Confidence (May) 93.1, 93.8 previous
•US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (May) 0.4, -2.3 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.595%, 3.600% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.650%, 3.615% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:30 Australia Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8%, -0.1% previous
• 02:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q2) 4.1% previous
• 02:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8% previous
• 02:30 Australia Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) (Q2) 3.5% previous
• 02:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Apr) 4.40%forecast, 4.60% previous
• 02:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8% previous
• 02:30 Australia Weighted Mean CPI (YoY) (Q2) 3.5% previous
• 02:30 Australia CPI Index Number (Q2) 101.70 previous
•03:00 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.25% forecast, 2.25% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 03:00 New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
•04:00 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday as doubts over the prospects of a deal to end the conflict with Iran weighed on pair.The latest attacks and comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that a deal with Iran could take “a few days” cooled hopes for a quick resolution, as markets looked for signs of further escalation in tensions.Traders were also weighing comments from European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel, who said the ECB should raise interest rates in June even if ongoing peace talks with Iran lead to a deal. Markets are currently pricing in around a 90% chance of a quarter-point ECB rate hike in June, with at least two more 25-basis-point increases expected by year-end.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1648(May 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped on Tuesday after optimism about an Iran peace deal was tempered by U.S. attacks on Iranian targets and comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio that talks could still take a few days. Markets have dealt with conflicting headlines on the talks in recent days, as they have throughout the conflict. On Saturday U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal was "largely negotiated", before rowing back his comments the following day. Most recently, Rubio said on Tuesday that a deal could "take a few days", denting hopes for an imminent end to the conflict. Sterling has wavered throughout the war, largely as investors have bought and sold the safe-haven U.S. dollar on the back of developments in peace talks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3505(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3473(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3382(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against greenback on Tuesday as investors assessed comments by a senior Bank of Canada policymaker and looked ahead to quarterly GDP data at the end of the week. The Bank of Canada said on Tuesday that structural changes in the labour market were complicating monetary policy decisions, warning that an incorrect response could increase inflationary pressures.Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent said the central bank can manage cyclical economic pressures through interest rate adjustments, but deeper structural challenges are more difficult to address.Economists expect first-quarter GDP data, due on Friday, to show the economy expanding at an annualised rate of 1.5%.Investors expect the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on June 10, according to swap market pricing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3733(May 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3770(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3691(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3664(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained some traction against yen on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh developments from the Middle East and new trading flows following the return of major financial centres.Market sentiment stayed fragile after fresh U.S. military strikes in southern Iran, while conflicting signals from President Donald Trump on Iran policy kept traders wary.Japan's core consumer inflation rate excluding one-off factors, as measured by the central bank's new gauge, hit 2.8% in April, exceeding its 2% target and accelerating from 2.5% in March, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday. The new index, which strips out institutional factors such as education and energy-related subsidies, showed a much faster year-on-year rise than the 1.4% rate in the benchmark core consumer price index figure the government announced last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.30(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.23(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.78(50%fib ).
Equities Recap
European shares were subdued on Tuesday as expectations for an imminent end to the Middle East conflict waned after the U.S. launched fresh attacks on Iran.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.03 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs on Tuesday, as AI-fueled optimism offset anxiety over Middle East peace talks concerns that were compounded by recent U.S. strikes on Iran.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.23 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.61percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday as renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran dampened hopes of a peace deal, pushing oil higher and reviving inflation concerns, which strengthened bets on higher U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was down 1.3% at $4,511.23 per ounce as of 11:05 a.m. EDT (1505 GMT). U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.2% to $4,513.90.
Brent crude futures climbed about 4% on Tuesday after the U.S. military carried out strikes in Iran, raising concerns over renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and dampening hopes of a near-term U.S.-Iran peace deal.
U.S. futures were down, however, catching up to Monday's selloff in Brent, when U.S. markets were closed.Global benchmark Brent rose $3.44, or 3.6%, to settle at $99.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.71, or 2.8%, to settle at $93.89.
