Market Roundup
• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov): 18.70, 6.10 forecast, 10.70 previous.
•Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.7%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous.
•Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.6%, 0 .2% previous.
•Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.9%, 2.8% previous.
•Canada CPI (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•Canada CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.2%, 2.4% previous.
•Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Sep): 31.32B, no forecast, 23.61B previous.
•Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Sep): 22.120B, no forecast, 18.790B previous.
•Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Oct): 2.9%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Oct): 3.0%, 3.0% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.084%, 2.065% previous.
•French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.027%, 2.030% previous.
•French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.041%, 2.044% previous.
•3-Month Bill Auction (USD): 3.795%, 3.780% previous.
•6-Month Bill Auction (USD): 3.710%, 3.690% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as traders were cautious ahead of a busy week for U.S. economic data. A backlog of data delayed by the federal government shutdown is set to be released this week, including the closely watched September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, offering insights into the health of the world’s largest economy.Despite recent private-sector data signaling further U.S. economic weakness, investors have scaled back expectations for a Fed rate cut next month, anticipating that gaps in economic data could delay or prevent additional easing. Markets now price in less than a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, down from over 60% earlier this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Monday as sterling gained support from hawkish remarks by BoE’s Catherine Mann.BOE policymaker Catherine Mann warned that firms are still responding to high inflation, signaling that rate-setters must remain vigilant in controlling price pressures.Mann said there’s still “work to do” to return inflation to the BOE’s 2% target, noting that companies consider inflation when planning prices a year ahead.Focus now turns to this week’s UK inflation data, ahead of the budget release and the BOE’s rate decision on December 18. The Bank of England held rates steady at its meeting this month, but in a close vote with four of its rate-setting monetary policy committee voting to cut rates by 25 basis points.At present, markets see roughly a three in four chance of such a cut at the BoE's December meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3200(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3225(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3131(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3012(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a 10-day low against the U.S. dollar on Monday as the greenback strengthened broadly and domestic data showed easing inflation pressures. Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in October from 2.4% in September, slightly above forecasts of 2.1%, driven by lower gasoline prices and slower food price growth.Separate data showed Canadian home sales rose 0.9% in October from September, supported by lower borrowing costs amid economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, oil prices, a key Canadian export, declined 0.3% to $59.91 a barrel as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4050 per U.S. dollar, or 71.17 U.S. cents, its weakest level since November 7.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3981(9 SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4059(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3946(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3847 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as broad dollar momentum outweighed Japan’s slightly stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP data. Japan’s economy contracted nearly 2% in the three months to September its first decline in six quarters—due to U.S. tariffs weighing on exports, government data showed. GDP fell 1.8% year-on-year, following a revised 2.3% gain in the prior quarter, surpassing forecasts for a 2.5% drop. On a quarterly basis, the economy shrank 0.4%, milder than the expected 0.6% decline. While most economists see limited impact on the Bank of Japan’s rate outlook, an adviser close to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gave the data greater weight. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.89(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.33 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report, which could provide insight into the health of the world’s largest economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.24 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.20 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.63 percent.
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing below a key technical level for the first time since late April, as investors prepared for earnings from retailers and chipmaker Nvidia and anticipated this week’s long-delayed U.S. jobs report.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.18 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.91% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.84% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Monday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and lower expectations for a U.S. rate cut next month, as investors awaited delayed economic data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
Spot gold was down 1.5% at $4,019.12 per ounce, as of 03:13 p.m. ET (20:13 GMT).U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% lower at $4,074.5 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped on Monday as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export hub following a two-day halt caused by a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port.
Brent crude settled 19 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $64.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $59.91.
