Market Roundup
• Chicago Jan Fed National Activity 0.66 ,0.52 previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.616% , -0.635% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.617%, -0.642% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.614%,-0.637% previous
• Belgium Feb NBB Business Climate -4.4, -7.5 previous
• US Jan Leading Index (MoM) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 0.045%,0.060% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•06:00 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•06:00 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q4) 1.1%1.4%,1.4% previous
•06:00 Australia Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q4) 1.0% forecast, -2.6% previous
•06:30 New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 0.25% forecast, 0.25% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•06:30 New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
•06:30 New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement
•06:30 New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Monday after data showed German business morale rose more than expected in February. German business morale rose far more than expected in February, bouncing back from a 6-month low in January thanks to a brighter industrial outlook and well-stocked order books, the Ifo economic institute said on Monday.Ifo said its business climate index increased to 92.4 from an upwardly revised 90.3 in January, hitting its highest level since October. The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.2142. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2168 (16th Feb high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2197 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2123 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2046(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Monday, hitting fresh three-year highs against the dollar as bullish investors bet on the UK’s vaccination rollout bringing about an economic recovery and Prime Minister Boris Johnson set out a schedule for easing the lockdown.Sterling reached its highest levels since April 2018 when it crossed $1.40 on Friday. It has risen 2.9% against the dollar in 2021 and its rapid gains have led to talk of a possible correction.The recent pound strengthening has been attributed to the UK’s relative success in providing COVID-19 vaccinations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4057(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4100(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3980(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3957 (38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, holding near its strongest level in nearly three years as oil rallied and the greenback broadly lost ground. U.S. crude oil futures settled 3.8% higher at $61.49 a barrel, driven by the expected slow return of U.S. crude output after last week's deep freeze in Texas shut in production. Copper rose 1.6%, while gold was up 1.4%. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.2606 to the greenback, or 79.33 U.S. cents, having touched its strongest intraday level since April 2018 at 1.2580. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2639 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2671 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2571 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as traders focused on whether coronavirus vaccinations, economic growth expectations and higher inflation could push bond yields higher. The U.S. dollar index was last down 0.07% late trading in New York, ticking up from earlier lows. The dollar has been trending down since early February following a January bounce from a 7% decline in 2020.Weakness in U.S. employment keeps undermining dollar rallies as the markets see wavering jobs data reinforcing the Federal Reserve's commitment to keep interest rates low. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.77 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.30(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.35 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.87 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares trimmed early losses on Monday as comments from the region's central bank brought down treasury yields, though inflation expectations and profit-taking in technology stocks dragged the benchmark index lower.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.11 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Monday as climbing Treasury yields and prospects of rising inflation triggered valuation concerns, hitting shares of high-flying growth companies.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.09%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.77% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.46 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
Investors pushed U.S. Treasury yields down from milestone highs on Monday and looked ahead to remarks U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is set to give on Tuesday in Washington.
The benchmark 10-year yield was up two basis points at 1.3653% in afternoon trading.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 1.5% to a near one-week high on Monday, as expectations for rising inflation triggered equity valuation concerns and drove investors toward the safe-haven metal, while a weaker U.S. dollar lent further support.
Spot gold was up 1.5% at $1,808.16 an ounce by 1:46 p.m. EST (1846 GMT), after hitting its highest level since Feb. 16 in the session.
Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Monday, boosted by the expected slow return of U.S. crude output after last week's deep freeze in Texas shut in production.
Brent crude settled at $65.24 a barrel, rising $2.33, or 3.7%, while U.S. oil settled at $61.49 a barrel, jumping $2.25, or 3.8%. The U.S. benchmark crude contract for March delivery expires on Monday, and the more widely-traded April contract was up $2.44, or 4.1%, at 61.70 a barrel.
