•US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1) 1.80%, 0.90% previous
•US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1) 1.20%, 1.10% previous
•US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1) 1.4%,1.1% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Mar Personal Income (MoM) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Mar Personal Spending (MoM) 1.1%,0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US Mar Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 5.2%, 5.3% forecast, 5.4% previous
•Canada Feb GDP (MoM) 1.1%, 0.8% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Chicago Apr PMI 58.5, 62.0 forecast , 62.9 previous
• US Apr Michigan Inflation Expectations 5.4%, 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous
• US Apr Michigan Consumer Sentiment 65.2,65.7 forecast ,59.4 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.5, 64.1 forecast, 54.3 previous
• US Apr Michigan Current Conditions 69.4, 67.8 forecast, 68.1 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 552 549 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 698, 695 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar edged down, but was within sight of its best monthly gain in a decade, buoyed by bets on rising expectations for U.S. rate hikes. On the data front, Euro zone inflation rose to 7.5% in April from 7.4% in March, in line with expectations, driven by a persistent surge in energy and food prices that have been exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The European Commission forecast just before the invasion that euro zone growth would be 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, so the preliminary data, if confirmed, would suggest the war and the related commodity and food price spikes cut growth by 0.1 percentage points. Euro zone economic growth was slower than expected in the first three months of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0583(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0662 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0400 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday, but was still set for its sharpest monthly drop since October 2016, while holding its ground against the euro.Investors' focus remained on monetary tightening ahead of next week's policy meeting of the Bank of England, which might cave in to the dovish minority, further weakening the pound. The British public's expectations for inflation have fallen after rising for several months, according to a survey that the Bank of England keeps track of as it considers how fast it needs to keep raising interest rates. The pound was up 0.8% against the dollar at $1.2559, after hitting $1.2412 on Thursday, its lowest level since July 2020.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2582 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2641(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2530 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2417 (23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, extending its monthly decline, as souring investor sentiment offset domestic data supportive of further upsized interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.The loonie traded 0.4% lower at 1.2850 to the greenback, or 77.82 U.S. cents, after giving back earlier gains. On Thursday, the currency touched its weakest intraday level in more than seven weeks at 1.2879. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.6% lower at $104.69 a barrel, while the safe-haven U.S. dollar pulled back from 20-year highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2875 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2901 (Mar 8th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2808 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2756 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against dollar on Friday as worrying U.S. economic data and concern about the Ukraine war rekindled some interest in the safe-haven yen. Dollar snapped a 6-day advance against a basket of currencies on Friday it was still on track for its biggest monthly gain in seven years as concerns about the global economy and a hawkish Federal Reserve bolstered demand for the greenback in April. The yen was last at 129.72 per dollar after falling as low as 131.25 overnight following the BOJ’s pledge to buy endless amounts of bonds daily as needed. The yen is down almost 7% in April, its worst month since Nov. 2016.Strong resistance can be seen at 131.15(23.%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 132.00(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.49(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 128.23(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares on Friday rose to their highest in a week as strong earnings reports and a rally in miners boosted risk appetite at the end of a volatile month dominated by concerns about slowing global growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.84 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.39percent.
The Dow and the S&P 500 ended higher, soaring to all-time highs on Wednesday, as investors piled into financial and industrial stocks on bets a Democratic sweep in Georgia would lead to more fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending.
Dow Jones closed down by 2.77% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 3.66 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 4.17% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Yields of Treasuries rose slightly on Friday following data that showed monthly inflation surged by the largest amount since 2005 in March, capping the largest gain in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields since December 2009.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 2.6 basis points to 2.889%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield was up 2.3 basis points at 2.952%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rallied 1% on Friday after the dollar retreated, but the metal was set to end the month lower on bets of aggressive policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $1,911.14 per ounce by 1752 GMT. However, it was on course to post a decline of 1.4% in April, its first monthly drop since January.U.S. gold futures settled up 1.1% at $1,911.70 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Friday, reversing in volatile trade, pulled downward by the U.S. heating oil contract that plummeted by more than 20% at one point on the day of its expiration.
The more-active second-month Brent crude futures contract fell 12 cents to settle at $107.14 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude , which does not expire on Friday, fell 67 cents to settle at $104.69 a barrel, as traders sold energy contracts across the board.
