|   Market Roundups


  |   Market Roundups


America's Roundup: Dollar dips on dismal data, Wall Street rallies, Gold hits 2-week high, Oil rises over 2 pct to 2019 highs on tightening supplies-February 16th, 2019

Market Roundup

• US-China trade talks to resume next week, Trump hints at extension 

• US Jan Industrial Production MM, -0.6%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous, 0.1% revised

• US Jan Import Prices MM, -0.5%, -0.1% forecast, -1.0% previous

• US Jan Export Prices MM, -0.6%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous

• US Feb U Mich Sentiment Prelim, 95.5, 93.0 forecast, 91.2 previous

• US Feb NY Fed Manufacturing, 8.80, 7.00 forecast, 3.90 previous

• Trump declares U.S.-Mexico border emergency, Democrats object 

• N.Y. Fed cuts U.S. Q1 GDP view to 1 pct after dismal data

• Fed's Bostic: Soft data doesn't change view of above-trend U.S. growth

• Fed's Daly sees no case for rate hike this year -WSJ interview

• Britain could accept Brexit backstop fix outside divorce deal - EU, UK sources

• Oil prices rise 2 percent on signs of further Saudi tightening

Looking Ahead - Economic Data 

• 17 Feb ( 18:30 ET/ 23:50 GMT) Japan Dec Machinery Orders YY, 4.8% forecast, 0.8% previous

• 17 Feb ( 18:30 ET/ 23:50 GMT) Japan Dec Machinery Orders MM, -1.1% forecast, 0.0% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases 

• (06:00 ET/ 11:00 GMT) Belgian Central Bank Governor Pierre Wunsch to present the central bank's annual report in Brussels.

• (11:15 ET/16:15 GMT) ECB Bank Supervisor Andrea Enria participates in the panel at the session "Banking Union - Challenges Ahead" at the 2019 European Parliamentary Week organised by European Parliament and Parliament of Romania in Brussels, Belgium.

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as greenback declined across the board after dismal U.S. retail sales data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year. U.S. retail sales posted their largest decline since September 2009, data showed on Thursday, a sign of weakness in the consumer sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The euro was up 0.03 percent at $1.1297, erasing an earlier loss tied partly to weak regional growth data. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was up 0.07 at 97.09. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1323 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1365 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1232 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1200 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Friday, as positive tone on Brexit from the Irish foreign minister and strong British retail sales data supported sterling across the board. British retail sales rebounded strongly in January as steep clothing discounts attracted wary shoppers, bucking a slowdown in consumer spending ahead of Brexit.Retail sales volumes jumped by a monthly 1.0 percent after their biggest fall in December in a year-and-a-half, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, far above the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2 percent rise. Sterling jumped half a percent to as high as $1.2891 versus the dollar, while against a broadly weaker euro the pound added 0.7 percent to reach 87.62 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2896 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2984 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2762 (Lower Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2670 (Jan 15th Low).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, performing better than most of its peers, as oil prices rose and investors weighed prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China ahead of a March 1 deadline. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so its economy could benefit from a U.S.-China trade deal that reduces global economic uncertainty. U.S. crude oil futures rose nearly two percent to $55.47 a barrel as this week's announcement of a higher-than-expected supply cut by Saudi Arabia encouraged investors. At (2000 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading 0.3 percent higher at 1.3249 to the greenback. Among G10 currencies, only the New Zealand dollar fared better. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3353 (Ichimoku Cloud Top), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3424 (Higher Bollinger Bands).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3247 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar declined against the yen on Friday, as investors shifted to safe haven assets ahead of the outcome of Sino-U.S. trade talks. With no decision to extend a March 1 deadline for a deal amid scant signs of progress, markets were in wait-and-see mode ahead of a meeting between the Trump administration's top two negotiators and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Investors are also focused on minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which will be released next Wednesday. The dollar was 0.03 lower versus the Japanese yen at 110.42. Strong resistance can be seen at 111.00 (Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.63 (Oct 3rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.25(9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 109.76  (21 DMA). 

Equities Recap

Reports of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and hopes of a new scheme to support euro zone banks drove a strong rally in European stocks, which posted their best week since November and reclaimed three-month highs.

The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.6 percent, FTSEurofirst 300 ended the day up by 1.46 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.9 percent, and France’s CAC finished the up by 1.8 percent.

Wall Street rallied on Friday on growing hopes the United States and China can hammer out an agreement resolving their protracted trade war.

Dow Jones closed up by 1.74 percent, S&P 500 ended up 1.09 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.61 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Friday but held in the middle of their recent range as investors digested mixed economic data for signals of Federal Reserve interest rate policy.

Benchmark 10-year notes fell 2/32 in price to yield 2.666 percent, up from 2.659 percent on Thursday. The yields have held between 2.543 percent and 2.799 percent this year, after falling from a seven-year high of 3.261 percent in October.

Commodities Recap

Gold jumped to a two-week high on Friday after weak U.S. economic data boosted expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would hold pat on monetary tightening, while palladium matched an all-time high on a prolonged deficit.

Spot gold was up 0.7 percent at $1,321.91 an ounce at (2019 GMT), having touched its highest level since Feb. 1 at $1,321.88.U.S. gold futures settled up 0.6 percent at $1,322.10.

Oil prices climbed more than 2 percent on Friday after an outage at Saudi Arabia's offshore oilfield boosted investor expectations for tightening supply.

The international Brent crude benchmark  rose $1.51, or 2.3 percent, to $66.08 a barrel, the highest since November 2018, EST (1934 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.18 at $55.59 a barrel, or 2.2 percent.

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