ADP Jobs Report: Is the U.S. Labor Market Cooling Down?

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is a primary economic indicator measuring the month-to-month change in non-farm, private United States employment. It uses data from around 400,000 U.S. business clients' payrolls and is widely regarded as a good indicator of the government's non-farm payroll report16. Below are some recent events and observations:

Recent Developments

February 2025 Report: The ADP National Employment Report for February 2025 showed a less-than-projected gain in private, non-farm employment. The actual figure of jobs created was 77,000, way short of the predicted 141,000 jobs. This reports a reduction in private sector job creation from the last month, which added 186,000 jobs1.

Importance and Impact

Economic Indicator: The ADP report is an early marker of employment trends, and it usually comes out two working days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Nonfarm Payrolls report. It offers a snapshot of the health of the U.S. economy and affects monetary policy choices25.

Market Impact: A below-forecast ADP report can be detrimental to the U.S. dollar, indicating a possible deceleration in the economy. A higher-than-forecast report is typically positive for the U.S. dollar15.