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A new equilibrium for CNY?

Thursday, October 8, 2015 6:50 AM UTC

China's onshore market re-opens today after one week Golden Week holiday. PBoC set USD-CNY fixing rate at 6.3505 this morning, compared with 6.3613 one week ago.

As USD-CNH lowered significantly to 6.34 hurdle during the Golden Week, and onshore USD-CNY closed at 6.3571 before the holiday, today's fixing rate appears to us that China's central bank intends to narrow the spread between onshore and offshore market. CNY-CNH spread also narrowed to less than 50pips this morning, within the normal range that we saw before the "one-off devaluation", notes Commerzbank.

Analysts need a few days to see whether market could reach a new "equilibrium" around 6.35 level. If this is the case, China's central bank will not need to intervene into the market aggressively.

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A new equilibrium for CNY?

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