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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

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Economy

Some experts say the US economy is on the up, but here’s why voters don’t think so

Many Americans are gloomy about the economy, despite some data saying it is improving. The Economist even took this discussion to TikTok. When its US editor John Prideaux examined inflation, wage and employment numbers,...

Electric air taxis are on the way – quiet eVTOLs may be flying passengers as early as 2025

Imagine a future with nearly silent air taxis flying above traffic jams and navigating between skyscrapers and suburban droneports. Transportation arrives at the touch of your smartphone and with minimal environmental...

Electricity from farm waste: how biogas could help Malawians with no power

In sub-Saharan Africa, over 600 million people (more than 50% of the population) are without access to electricity. Malawi has one of the worlds lowest electricity access rates just 14.1% of the total population have...

High interest rates aren’t going away anytime soon – a business economist explains why

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May 1, 2024, policy meeting, dashing the hopes of potential homebuyers and others who were hoping for a cut. Not only will rates remain at their current level a...

US long-term care costs are sky-high, but Washington state’s new way to help pay for them could be nixed

If you needed long-term care, could you afford it? For many Americans, especially those with a middle-class income and little savings, the answer to that question is absolutely not. Nursing homes charge somewhere...

Politics

Taiwan is experiencing millions of cyberattacks every day

Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety of grey zone tactics to pressure...

What the Supreme Court is doing right in considering Trump’s immunity case

Following the nearly three-hour oral argument about presidential immunity in the Supreme Court on April 25, 2024, many commentators were aghast. The general theme, among legal and political experts alike, was a...

US Urges China, Russia to Reject AI Control in Nuclear Arms, Align with Global Norms

Paul Dean, a senior U.S. arms control official, emphasized the critical need for China and Russia to join the U.S. in declaring that humans will always decide on the deployment of nuclear weapons, not artificial...

US election: why it’s not the protesters’ votes that the Democrats should worry about

As hundreds of New York police officers in riot gear were called in to clear away a student protest at Columbia University on Tuesday night, the university president Nemat Shafik was saying she had no choice but to take...

Trump-proofing Nato: why Europe’s current nuclear deterrents may not be enough to face biggest threats since WWII

Though a second Trump presidency is not a foregone conclusion, Nato members are gearing up to Trump-proof the organisation and reviewing their defence strategies. Natos concerns about Trumps re-election were heightened...

Science

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

Dark matter: our new experiment aims to turn the ghostly substance into actual light

A ghost is haunting our universe. This has been known in astronomy and cosmology for decades. Observations suggest that about 85% of all the matter in the universe is mysterious and invisible. These two qualities are...

A Nasa rover has reached a promising place to search for fossilised life on Mars

While we go about our daily lives on Earth, a nuclear-powered robot the size of a small car is trundling around Mars looking for fossils. Unlike its predecessor Curiosity, Nasas Perseverance rover is explicitly intended to...

The rising flood of space junk is a risk to us on Earth – and governments are on the hook

A piece of space junk recently crashed through the roof and floor of a mans home in Florida. Nasa later confirmed that the object had come from unwanted hardware released from the international space station. The 700g,...

Technology

Ripple Partner SBI Holdings to Form Joint Venture in Japan with Chiliz for Sports Tokens

SBI Digital Holdings, a Ripple Labs partner, has revealed plans to deliver sports fan tokens to the Japanese market. The company announced a deal with Chiliz on May 9 to launch a sports and entertainment joint...

Samsung Galaxy S24 Boosts Sales, Reaches Four-Year High in Q1 2024 Smartphone Market

Samsungs Galaxy S24 has propelled the companys smartphone sales in the US to a four-year high, marking a significant achievement. Galaxy S24 Drives Samsungs Surge: Smartphone Sales Soar, Earnings Rise, and Market Share...

Bitcoin Price Surges, Crypto Market Confirms Strong Recovery With Breakout

The crypto market saw increased trading volume during US hours as Bitcoins (BTC) price broke above a declining trendline. Is the crypto markets rebound confirmed, or is it a false breakout? Bitcoin Price Breakout The...

Elon Musk Teases Revolutionary Full Self-Driving V12.4, Cybertruck to Wait

Tesla CEO Elon Musk hints at the possible release of Full Self-Driving (FSD) V12.4 next week, with significant upgrades anticipated for Tesla drivers, excluding the Cybertruck for now. Elon Musk Teases Tesla FSD V12.4...

Whale Buys 357 Billion PEPE, Fueling Expectations of Continued Growth

In a bold move signaling strong market confidence, a crypto whale has snapped up 357 billion PEPE on Binance, propelling PEPEs price higher. This considerable acquisition coincides with the tokens recent 3% uptick and a...