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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

US Dem presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?

Jul 22, 2019 13:38 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

The next US presidential election will be held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee, but there is a contest for the Democratic presidential nomination. The...

Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition's upset victory

Jun 19, 2019 02:31 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The...

2001 polls in review: September 11 influenced election outcome far more than Tampa incident

Feb 24, 2019 06:38 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Many commentators have compared Labors support for the Medevac legislation with the Tampa incident in late August 2001. The implication is that Labor lost the 2001 election due to Tampa, and could lose this years election...

Democrats take House at US midterm elections, but Republicans keep Senate; Labor well ahead in Victoria

Nov 08, 2018 17:20 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

US midterm elections were held today. All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senators were up for election. Democrats were defending 26 Senators, including some states that Trump won by big margins in 2016, and Republicans...

Poll wrap: Morrison's ratings slump in Newspoll; Wentworth's huge difference in on-the-day and early voting

Oct 29, 2018 19:31 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 25-28 from a sample of 1,650, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down one), 9% Greens...

Poll wrap: Labor slips in Newspoll, but gains in Ipsos, in Wentworth and in Victoria

Oct 16, 2018 15:12 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted October 11-14 from a sample of 1,707, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 37% Coalition (up one), 11%...

Poll wrap: Worst reaction to midterm PM change in Newspoll history; contrary polls in Dutton's Dickson

Aug 28, 2018 12:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

This weeks Newspoll, conducted August 24-26 - the days following the leadership spill - from a sample of 1,780, gave Labor a massive 56-44 lead, a five point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41%...

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Economy

Interest rates: the ugly dilemma facing Europe’s central banks – and why it’s a mistake to cut too soon

Central banks in Europe are discovering an old dilemma: when they lower interest rates because inflation is slowing down, its likely to weaken their currencies. This in turn may delay the fall in inflation towards their...

Europe is still in short-term crisis mode over Ukraine and lacks a vision for its post-war identity

Some believe that the war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed Europe, giving birth to a different kind of European order. That is, it appears to be driving structural shifts in the way Europe is run and organised that...

Mortgage prisoners: regulatory changes and low credit scores have left thousands trapped in a cycle of high payments

There are 8.5 million households in the UK who own a home with a residential mortgage, often with fixed interest rates from two to five years. Usually, when that mortgage deal ends, the borrower will move to another deal...

What should you do if you can’t pay your rent or mortgage?

The cost of living crisis is making it difficult for many people to pay their bills, including housing costs. Private sector rents have increased by an average 9% over the year to February 2024, and rising interest rates...

Reducing energy demand and improving efficiency will help prevent the next gas crisis

Gas prices have relaxed, Europe has come out of the winter with record gas storage levels and a surfeit of liquefied natural gas is set to reach the shores of Europe over the coming years. Many commentators are hopeful...

Politics

Gabon: post-coup dialogue has mapped out path to democracy – now military leaders must act

At the end of April 2024, a long and peaceful process of national dialogue in Gabon between the military junta, presided over by coup leader General Brice Oligui Nguema, and civil society, represented by 580 civilians,...

How German media attention idealises female Ukrainian refugees

According to the latest available data, around 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, while nearly 6.5 million have registered as refugees globally. With 1.13 million, Germany has taken in the largest...

Over 26 million South Africans get a social grant. Fear of losing the payment used to be a reason to vote for the ANC, but no longer – study

Social grants to reduce poverty feature prominently in the campaign promises of political parties in South Africas 2024 national and provincial general elections, set for 29 May. The countrys social grants system is one...

Donald Trump Allegedly Offers Oil Execs a Deal to Scrap EV Incentives for $1B Donation

Former President Donald Trump reportedly proposed a $1 billion deal to oil executives, offering to end electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in return for campaign funding, according to The Washington Post. This move underscores...

US Supreme Court upended decades of precedent in 2022 by allowing voters to vote with gerrymandered maps instead of fixing the congressional districts first

For the 2022 midterm elections, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use congressional districts that violated the law and diluted the voting power of Black citizens. A 5-4 vote by the Supreme Court in February...

Science

Is dark matter’s main rival theory dead? There’s bad news from the Cassini spacecraft and other recent tests

One of the biggest mysteries in astrophysics today is that the forces in galaxies do not seem to add up. Galaxies rotate much faster than predicted by applying Newtons law of gravity to their visible matter, despite those...

Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never heard of

Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without...

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

Dark matter: our new experiment aims to turn the ghostly substance into actual light

A ghost is haunting our universe. This has been known in astronomy and cosmology for decades. Observations suggest that about 85% of all the matter in the universe is mysterious and invisible. These two qualities are...

Technology

Shiba Inu Burn Rate Skyrockets 579%, 9.83 Million Tokens Burned in One Day

Shiba Inus burn rate surged by 579% in the past 24 hours, destroying 9.83 million tokens, according to Shibburn. The significant increase in token burns has caught the markets attention, with substantial transactions from...

Tesla Cybertruck Trails Ford F-150 Lightning in Sales as Q1 Figures Disappoint Wall Street

New registration data reveals that the Tesla Cybertruck ranked second to the Ford F-150 Lightning in March. Meanwhile, Teslas Q1 sales missed Wall Street expectations, marking the first year-over-year quarterly decline...

Bitcoin Developers Tease Major Trigger for Next Bull Run: Programmability Upgrade

Bitcoin developers suggest enabling programmability on the blockchain could be the key trigger for the next bull run, following the SECs approval of spot Bitcoin ETF trading and the BTC halving. Developers Eye...

Top 3 Altcoins to Watch This Week: SOL, FTM, and LINK Set for Growth

This week, market experts spotlight Solana (SOL), Fantom (FTM), and Chainlink (LINK) as top altcoins to watch, highlighting their unique strengths and recent performance amid unusual market patterns. Solana Overcomes...

Ripple Warns: Math Prof Predicts Quantum Threat to Blockchain, Urges Crypto Key Overhaul

Ripple recently highlighted a warning from Professor Massimiliano Sala, urging the crypto industry to replace current public-key cryptosystems due to vulnerabilities exposed by advancing quantum technology. Professor...