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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Joe Biden wins US presidential election as mail-in votes turn key states around

Nov 08, 2020 10:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Pennsylvania and Nevada were today called for Joe Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the 270 required to win. Biden is now the US president-elect, defeating an incumbent president for the first time...

Will coronavirus damage Trump in the US general election? And Morrison's ratings improve in Newspoll

Mar 17, 2020 01:37 am UTC| Politics

Four states hold Democratic primaries on Wednesday in Australia: Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona. These states will award 14.5% of all pledged delegates, taking us to 61.5% of total delegates. But given Joe Bidens...

Bernie Sanders easily wins Nevada caucus; the Coalition regains support in Newspoll

Feb 26, 2020 07:45 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Bernie Sanders has easily won the Nevada Democratic caucus, cementing his status as front-runner for the Democratic nomination in the US presidential election. With 88% of precincts reporting, Sanders won 47.1% of...

With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally

Feb 03, 2020 12:36 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the RealClearPolitics poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren...

Conservative landslide at UK's Brexit election; Trump's ratings rise on strong US economy

Dec 14, 2019 09:59 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

At the December 12 UK election, the Conservatives won 365 of the 650 House of Commons seats (up 48 since the 2017 election), Labour 202 (down 60), the Scottish National Party (SNP) 48 (up 13) and the Liberal Democrats 11...

Warren placed second after Biden, as Trump's ratings rise. But could the impeachment scandal make a difference?

Sep 28, 2019 13:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Two weeks after the September 12 Democratic presidential debate, Joe Biden continues to lead with 29.0% in the RealClearPolitics Democratic national average, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 21.4%, Bernie Sanders at 17.3%,...

Biden still leads US Democratic primaries, Trump's ratings fall slightly after gun massacres, plus Australian preference flows

Aug 15, 2019 17:47 pm UTC| Insights & Views Politics

After the first Democratic presidential debate on June 25-26, Joe Biden fell in Democratic national presidential polls, and Kamala Harris surged. In the lead-up to the July 30-31 debate, Biden recovered lost support while...

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Economy

Interest rates: the ugly dilemma facing Europe’s central banks – and why it’s a mistake to cut too soon

Central banks in Europe are discovering an old dilemma: when they lower interest rates because inflation is slowing down, its likely to weaken their currencies. This in turn may delay the fall in inflation towards their...

Europe is still in short-term crisis mode over Ukraine and lacks a vision for its post-war identity

Some believe that the war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed Europe, giving birth to a different kind of European order. That is, it appears to be driving structural shifts in the way Europe is run and organised that...

Mortgage prisoners: regulatory changes and low credit scores have left thousands trapped in a cycle of high payments

There are 8.5 million households in the UK who own a home with a residential mortgage, often with fixed interest rates from two to five years. Usually, when that mortgage deal ends, the borrower will move to another deal...

What should you do if you can’t pay your rent or mortgage?

The cost of living crisis is making it difficult for many people to pay their bills, including housing costs. Private sector rents have increased by an average 9% over the year to February 2024, and rising interest rates...

Reducing energy demand and improving efficiency will help prevent the next gas crisis

Gas prices have relaxed, Europe has come out of the winter with record gas storage levels and a surfeit of liquefied natural gas is set to reach the shores of Europe over the coming years. Many commentators are hopeful...

Politics

Gabon: post-coup dialogue has mapped out path to democracy – now military leaders must act

At the end of April 2024, a long and peaceful process of national dialogue in Gabon between the military junta, presided over by coup leader General Brice Oligui Nguema, and civil society, represented by 580 civilians,...

How German media attention idealises female Ukrainian refugees

According to the latest available data, around 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, while nearly 6.5 million have registered as refugees globally. With 1.13 million, Germany has taken in the largest...

Over 26 million South Africans get a social grant. Fear of losing the payment used to be a reason to vote for the ANC, but no longer – study

Social grants to reduce poverty feature prominently in the campaign promises of political parties in South Africas 2024 national and provincial general elections, set for 29 May. The countrys social grants system is one...

Donald Trump Allegedly Offers Oil Execs a Deal to Scrap EV Incentives for $1B Donation

Former President Donald Trump reportedly proposed a $1 billion deal to oil executives, offering to end electric vehicle (EV) subsidies in return for campaign funding, according to The Washington Post. This move underscores...

US Supreme Court upended decades of precedent in 2022 by allowing voters to vote with gerrymandered maps instead of fixing the congressional districts first

For the 2022 midterm elections, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Alabama to use congressional districts that violated the law and diluted the voting power of Black citizens. A 5-4 vote by the Supreme Court in February...

Science

Is dark matter’s main rival theory dead? There’s bad news from the Cassini spacecraft and other recent tests

One of the biggest mysteries in astrophysics today is that the forces in galaxies do not seem to add up. Galaxies rotate much faster than predicted by applying Newtons law of gravity to their visible matter, despite those...

Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never heard of

Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without...

IceCube researchers detect a rare type of energetic neutrino sent from powerful astronomical objects

About a trillion tiny particles called neutrinos pass through you every second. Created during the Big Bang, these relic neutrinos exist throughout the entire universe, but they cant harm you. In fact, only one of them is...

The Mars Sample Return mission has a shaky future, and NASA is calling on private companies for backup

A critical NASA mission in the search for life beyond Earth, Mars Sample Return, is in trouble. Its budget has ballooned from US$5 billion to over $11 billion, and the sample return date may slip from the end of this...

Dark matter: our new experiment aims to turn the ghostly substance into actual light

A ghost is haunting our universe. This has been known in astronomy and cosmology for decades. Observations suggest that about 85% of all the matter in the universe is mysterious and invisible. These two qualities are...

Technology

Shiba Inu Burn Rate Skyrockets 579%, 9.83 Million Tokens Burned in One Day

Shiba Inus burn rate surged by 579% in the past 24 hours, destroying 9.83 million tokens, according to Shibburn. The significant increase in token burns has caught the markets attention, with substantial transactions from...

Tesla Cybertruck Trails Ford F-150 Lightning in Sales as Q1 Figures Disappoint Wall Street

New registration data reveals that the Tesla Cybertruck ranked second to the Ford F-150 Lightning in March. Meanwhile, Teslas Q1 sales missed Wall Street expectations, marking the first year-over-year quarterly decline...

Bitcoin Developers Tease Major Trigger for Next Bull Run: Programmability Upgrade

Bitcoin developers suggest enabling programmability on the blockchain could be the key trigger for the next bull run, following the SECs approval of spot Bitcoin ETF trading and the BTC halving. Developers Eye...

Top 3 Altcoins to Watch This Week: SOL, FTM, and LINK Set for Growth

This week, market experts spotlight Solana (SOL), Fantom (FTM), and Chainlink (LINK) as top altcoins to watch, highlighting their unique strengths and recent performance amid unusual market patterns. Solana Overcomes...

Ripple Warns: Math Prof Predicts Quantum Threat to Blockchain, Urges Crypto Key Overhaul

Ripple recently highlighted a warning from Professor Massimiliano Sala, urging the crypto industry to replace current public-key cryptosystems due to vulnerabilities exposed by advancing quantum technology. Professor...