US December nonfarm pay rolls likely to rise

 US December employment report is likely to show a rise. Initial jobless claims were approximately steady from November to December reference week. While continuous unemployment claims are currently higher than previous month, this upward movement indicates seasonal volatility.

"we forecast nonfarm payrolls to have risen by 225k. Within this, we expect private payrolls to have expanded by 215k and government payrolls to have grown 10k,the unemployment rate to fall one-tenth to 4.9% (previous: 5.046%), and average hourly earnings to rise 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y). Finally, we look for a steady workweek at 34.5 hours", says Barclays in a research note.

The payroll growth looks consistent with the underlying trend of 200-225K. If the job growth continues in a similar pace, it will push unemployment rate lower and lead to labor market tightening, keeping Fed on track for further rate-hikes next year.