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The United Kingdom’s gilts jumped during Tuesday’s afternoon session, after the country’s Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to hold a third meaningful vote on her deal before Thursday’s EU Summit was thwarted by Parliamentary Speaker Bercow’s statement yesterday afternoon.
The latter mentioned that a further vote in the House of Commons by Mrs. May could only be sought on a proposition that is “not the same or substantially the same” as was voted upon last week.
However, investors have also shrugged-off the better-than-expected reading of the labour market report; on the positive side, Britain’s unemployment rate for the month of February cheered market participants as well.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, slipped nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 1.185 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields fell nearly 2 basis points to 1.686 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded tad lower at 0.747 percent by 10:00GMT.
Theresa May would seem to have a number of options ahead. She could plough on regardless and try to persuade the Speaker to allow her to present her deal to Parliament again, arguing that any new concessions to Northern Ireland resulting from her negotiations with the DUP over recent days do represent a substantially different proposition. That approach might be most in character, but might similarly fail to get the Speaker’s approval, Daiwa Capital Markets reported.
Alternatively, the PM could turn over a new leaf, finally acknowledge her minority position in Parliament and take a more co-operative approach to Brexit, either agreeing to drop her redlines and agree to renegotiate the Political Declaration on the future relationship (the only part of the deal that the EU will be willing to reopen) to leave open the possibility of a softer Brexit (e.g. based on a permanent customs union or a closer Norway-plus arrangement).
Similarly, she might agree to submit her deal to Parliament for approval only subject to a confirmatory second referendum. However, such a more collegiate approach would seem to be highly out of character for May, and dynamite for the Conservative Party, the report added.
Lastly, the UK’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 3.9 percent in the three months to January, recording its lowest level since January 1975, while the number of people in work rose 222,000, its largest increase since 2015. Further, average earnings, excluding bonuses, continued to rise at their fastest pace since the financial crisis a decade, jumping 3.4 percent in the three months to January, above forecasts for a 3.2 percent rise.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 remained tad 0.24 percent higher at 7,316.66 by 10:20GMT, while at 10:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Pound Strength Index remained neutral at 0.88 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
