UK borrowing to have fallen by a decent £9.5bn in Jan: Capital Economics

Quotes from Capital Economics:

- If we are about to see a turnaround in the public finances (09.30 GMT), then Jan is the key month. Borrowing on the new PSNB ex. measure was £2.9bn higher in Dec than a year earlier. 

- Granted, this reflected a £2.9bn payment to the EU, which will be partly offset in future by a £1.2bn rebate later this fiscal year. Nonetheless, the recent trend in the public finances has been disappointing. 

- But Jan should hopefully bring a more substantial improvement, as we should see a bumper set of self-assessment tax receipts resulting from individuals deferring income in 2013/14 to take advantage of the reduction in the additional tax rate. Accordingly, we expect borrowing to have fallen by a decent £9.5bn in Jan