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The Fed gets no help from CPI

 

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in July and 0.2 percent over the last 12 months giving ammunition to the Federal Reserve doves to delay raising rates.  But the Fed is signaling that it wants to start raising rates in September and if you torture the statistics enough you can get the answer you want.  For example simply use CPI less food and energy over the past year and, voila! The answer is 1.8 percent, very near the Fed's 2.0 percent target. 

"The problem with making exceptions like that presumes that it is just normal volatility around a stable average level.  This is nonsense. With the energy index falling 14.8 percent over the past year, it is not likely to ever recover and may get worse if rates are hiked giving further strength to the dollar and lower prices to dollar denominated oil.  As much attention that low unemployment has been garnering, the real concern of the Fed is the lack of inflation despite their enormous efforts to the contrary", says Voya Gobal.

 

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