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The divergence in performance between domestic and eternally oriented sectors of the American economy was on full display this week.
While the ISM non-manufacturing index showed the fastest acceleration in activity in a decade (up 4.3 points to 60.3), the manufacturing index fell 0.8 points (to 52.7). Trade data confirmed the divergence theme with imports rising (+1.2%) and exports falling (-0.1%).
The last Federal Reserve announcement noted that it would be "appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term." The addition of the word "some" to the statement was intended to imply a slightly lower threshold for the labor market than previously. There is little doubt that even with an unhelpful external backdrop, the labor market, and indeed the broader economic recovery, is hitting the bar for an imminent (albeit gradual) move in interest rates from the zero lower bound.
The job market continues to show "some" further improvement with 215k jobs created in July and net revisions of 14k added to the previous two month tally. With only one more job report before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, it would take a serious disappointment to stall the Fed from its first rate hike in nearly a decade.
