Revisions to core retail sales suggests a weaker profile for US consumption in Q1

US retail sales rose 0.9% m/m in March, slightly below consensus forecasts (1.1% m/m) for a stronger gain. Gasoline station sales accounted for much of the miss at the headline level. Core retail sales were up 0.3% m/m in March, against consensus expectations (0.5%) for a stronger rebound. 

The March retail sales report also contained significant downward revisions to core retail sales in Jan and Feb. Whereas core sales were previously estimated to have fallen 0.1% in Jan and flat in Feb, they are now estimated to have fallen 0.2% in both months. 

Despite the rebound in core sales in March, core retail sales in Q1 were flat relative to Q4 in nominal terms. Taken together, the revised path for core sales suggests a weaker profile for consumption in Q1. 

Barclays said - "After incorporating the weaker-than-expected March data, as well as revisions to prior months, our tracking estimate of Q1 real consumption fell to 1.7% from 2.1%. This cut our Q1 GDP tracking estimate two-tenths, to 1.0%."