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Norwegian economic growth likely to have decelerated slightly in Q4 2017

Through the initial three quarters of last year. Norway’s mainland GDP growth has averaged 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter. The fourth quarter figure is not expected to be any significantly different, noted Nordea Bank in a research report. The economy is expected to have recorded marginally weaker growth due to deceleration in the retail sector after two very strong quarters. However, this should not be seen as a sign of more lasting weakness. As significant as the growth figures is the figure for employment, which is expected to continue to grow at a healthy rate of 0.2 percent to 0.3 percent, stated Nordea Bank.

Most factors indicate towards continued solid growth in the nation. The market for oil related industries appears set to grow with increasing oil investment. Mainland exports should expand solidly with a subdued NOK and solid growth abroad. Consumption growth is expected to be healthy with a rebounding labor market.

Growth in mainland business investment is picking up with stronger growth and positive credit conditions. Housing investment is the only negative factor that is expected to fall because of the easing of the housing market. However, the current slowing down of sales of new homes would probably not have impact on activity before well into this year and far from enough to threaten the healthy rebound, said Nordea Bank.

“Our forecast for growth is somewhat on the downside compared to Norges Bank, but growth must probably end outside the range of ½ to ¾ percent for it to have an effect on Norges Bank’s view”, added Nordea Bank.

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