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No rate hike expected from today's FOMC meeting

The Fed wants to be on the safe side, therefore, it will not hike rates at today's meeting. 

The economic recovery following the weak Q1 is not as obvious from the data as the FOMC would like it to be. There is a reason why market expectations for the Fed Fund Rate for December 2015 have not risen again since April. 
However, nobody will be able to question the strong development of the labour market any longer. Finally wages are also beginning to rise. That is of particularly significance as higher wages will have an effect on prices sooner or later. This is one thing the Fed made very clear: rate cuts are only an option if it can be sufficiently confident that medium term inflation will rise to 2%, notes Commerzbank. 

So principally the Fed will seem optimistic today, but it will want to wait with a rate hike until the data illustrates more clearly that the US economy has overcome the period of weakness seen in Q1 without any difficulties. Commerzbank says, a first rate hike in September to be likely.  

The central bankers who were particularly optimistic in March will be unable to maintain their expectations for the Fed Funds Rate for late 2015. Once again the FOMC will have to adjust to lower market expectations. It will be decisive whether the majority of central bankers still expects two rate hikes this year or just one like the market. The USD positive momentum is likely to dominate as long as it is clear that the Fed really is willing to take action, adds Commerzbank.

After all nothing has changed about the basic trend: The Fed is moving towards monetary policy tightening while the other central banks are either sticking to the status quo or are even considering a rate cut. Whether that is sufficient to break the technical support at 1.1050 is however questionable. 

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