Mexican economic activity slowed sharply in January, looks to be an anomaly

Societe Generale notes..

• January industrial production (and export growth) was disappointing and surprising given thelack of any meaningful trigger for this development.As a result, we estimate growth to have slowed to 0.9% yoy in January from 3.2% yoy in December 2014. However, we expect this slowdown to prove anomalous.
  
  
• Recent trends in the pace of industrial production (IP) and manufacturing growth have been nearly double their historical averages (since 1999). 
  
  
• Stronger IP growth was helped by stronger US growth and the improving competitiveness of the economy.
  
  
• On the back of a jump in vehicle exports, Mexico's real export growth has surgedimpressively in recent years (except for a brief interruption in 2013).
  
  
• Export-led investment growth should help the economy post near-trend growth this year followed by an improvement next year on strengthening consumption.