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For the past few days natural gas is showing unprecedented volatility, which has baffled many in the market. Daily candlestick chart shows, massive buying today, followed by a big hammer yesterday. So is this the reversal in recent down trend.
- On 21st Price dropped 3.6% starting the recent big selloff.
- Next day was relatively quiet, price dropped another 0.9%.
- Calm was over, price dropped another 3.7%.
- High volatility sets in. Price drops more than 9% on Monday, 26th.
- Yesterday was of even bigger swing. Price dropped 6.5%, however sharp recovery led to positive close as price rose more than 8% from bottom.
- Today Natural gas prices up close to 12% so far, trading at $2.33/mmbtu.
Technically speaking, this could mark some consolidation and reversal, however fundamental is clearly not in support.
A much warmer winter is expected in US and gas inventory is closing in on record 4 trillion cubic feet (tcf) before demand start reducing stockpile. Current storage stands at 3.814 tcf.
This could very well be massive short covering ahead of FED today and Natural gas inventory report tomorrow.
Under such scenario, price could remain capped within $2.45/mmbtu.
