Japan’s Core Inflation Likely Eased in September as Exports Slowed - Latest CPI and Trade Data

Japan's Core Consumer Inflation Likely Eased in September Amid Slowing Export Growth

Japan's core consumer inflation rate likely eased in September due to a decline in energy costs, which was helped by government subsidies, according to a Reuters poll. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks oil products but excludes fresh food, is expected to have risen 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from 2.8% in August, based on a survey of 18 economists.

Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, explained, "The pace of increase in consumer inflation likely eased due to lower electricity and city gas prices, though prices for certain food items, such as rice, were higher."

Export Growth Slows Amid Global Manufacturing Weakness

The poll also revealed that Japan's export growth slowed in September, with an expected increase of only 0.5%, down sharply from 5.5% in August. Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, linked this slowdown to weak global manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, imports are forecasted to have risen 3.2%, leading to a trade deficit of 237.6 billion yen.

Upcoming Data Releases:

- CPI Data: The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is set to release the CPI data at 8:30 a.m. JST on October 20.

- Trade Data: The Ministry of Finance will announce trade figures at 8:50 a.m. JST on October 19.

- Machinery Orders: Machinery orders, a volatile yet leading indicator for capital spending over the next six to nine months, are projected to have fallen 0.1% month-on-month in August, the same rate of decline as in July.

Tsunoda further noted signs of cautious business spending: "Although companies maintain a generally positive investment outlook, there are signs of delays in capital spending due to external factors, including China's economic slowdown."