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Is China’s Services Sector Losing Resilience?

Business activity in China’s service sector expanded only modestly in February, underscoring the headwinds that China faces as it attempts a shift towards a more service-oriented economy. The Caxin services purchasing manager index dropped to 51.2 in February from January’s six-month high of 52.4, but remained above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. Data indicated a softening of growth momentum after a solid rise at the start to the year. 

February reading was the weakest since way back in the depths of the global financial crisis and markets will be tuned into whether the services PMI continues to decelerate in March.  State versions of China’s purchasing managers’ indices for the manufacturing and services sectors, along with the private version of the manufacturing PMI are scheduled for release this week. 4castweb expects China's March PMI manufacturing at 49.2 and the Caixin PMI manufacturing indicator at 48.2.

China's services sector accounts for more than half of the economy, with the secondary industry, or manufacturing making up about 40 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Despite softer growth in February, the Caixin survey found that service providers were more confident about the business outlook for the next year while the level of positive sentiment was the strongest in seven months.

Premier Li Keqiang in a speech last Thursday at the annual Boao Forum for Asia said that Beijing will reduce the tax burden on Chinese companies to spur dynamism and help the economy’s shift toward consumption and services from manufacturing. Mr. Li said China will gradually liberalize its services market to outside investment and avoid a rapid depreciation of the yuan in keeping with its bid to encourage higher-value industries.

PBOC fix USD/CNY at 6.5232 today vs 6.5223 on Friday. USDCNY was trading around 6.5162 levels at around 1145 GMT after making an intraday high at 6.5208 and low at 6.5148. China's CSI300 index closed down 0.9 pct at 3,169.73 points, while Shanghai Composite index closed down 0.7 pct at 2,957.82 points.
 

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