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Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed at the beginning of the week as escalating tensions between Iran and the United States raised fresh concerns over Middle East energy supplies and global oil markets.
Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler showed that seven commodity vessels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down from eight vessels on Sunday. The decline followed Iran’s warning that it would retaliate against any additional U.S. attacks, increasing uncertainty around one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
Tehran also warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf could be vulnerable to retaliation. Iranian officials specifically highlighted U.S.-linked oil and gas interests in the region, adding to fears that further military escalation could disrupt crude oil shipments and other commodity flows.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for Middle Eastern energy exports, making changes in shipping activity closely watched by oil traders. Prolonged disruptions could tighten global supplies and increase volatility in Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices.
Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027. The investment bank expects Middle East shipping disruptions to persist into next year, suggesting geopolitical risks could continue supporting oil prices over the longer term.
While Hormuz traffic declined, shipping activity through the Bab el-Mandeb strait moved sharply higher. Kpler data showed that 29 commodity vessels passed through the strategic waterway on Monday, compared with 17 the previous day.
The contrasting traffic patterns highlight how shipping companies are navigating heightened security risks across key Middle Eastern maritime routes. Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are important corridors for global commodity trade, particularly energy shipments.
However, Kpler’s figures may not capture all maritime traffic. Some vessels could be traveling through the waterways with their transponders switched off, meaning actual shipping volumes may differ from the reported vessel counts.
