Gold Poised for Further Gains as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Gold prices showed a minor profit booking after a massive recovery of more than $100 on Friday.   It hits a high of $3385  and is currently trading around $3352.

The US 10-year Treasury yield experienced a significant drop to approximately 4.22%, its lowest since late April, following a disappointing July 2025 non-farm payroll report that showed only 73,000 jobs created, far below the anticipated 110,000. Furthermore, substantial downward revisions to May and June figures, totaling 258,000 jobs, indicated a faster-than-expected cooling of the labor market. This weak data has dramatically increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with probabilities now between 87.5% and 90%, driven by growing concerns over an economic slowdown and recession risks. The poor jobs report also led to a broad decline in the US dollar and a fall in global equities as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets. This collectively erased optimism regarding US economic resilience, dampening bond yields and heightening anticipation for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a 25 bpbs rate cut in the Sep 17th  2025 meeting have increased to 88.20% from 63.30% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
 
Gold prices are holding above the short-term moving average 34 EMA and  55 EMA and above the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3340, and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3320/$3300/$3290/$3275/$3245/$3200. The near-term resistance is at $3385 with potential price targets at $3400/$3420/$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550.

It is good to buy on dips around $3330 with a stop-loss at $3300 for a target price of $3400.