German 2015 annual GDP growth to be at 1.6%, domestic demand and private consumption likely main drivers

German statistics office is scheduled to publish a preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth ahead of the Q4 data (due 14 Jan). Expectations are for annual GDP growth to have been 1.6% in 2015, the same as in 2014, which implicitly implies Q4 growth of around 0.3% q/q. Higher number of working-days in 2015 probably added about 0.2pp to annual growth based on the seasonally adjusted series.

Domestic demand, and private consumption in particular which is expected to have grown by nearly 2%, are seen as the main driving force for growth. Government consumption is also expected to have accelerated to 2.4%, while investment likely decelerated to 1.5% for the year as a whole. Contribution from net exports is likely to have been minimal, with exports holding up despite severe headwinds from Asia while imports were boosted by strong domestic consumption.

"We expect the German economy to accelerate somewhat in early 2016 and maintain a high growth rate for the rest of the year, reaching around 1.8% GDP growth, again boosted by more working days," says Societe Generale in a report.