Geopolitical High-Wire: Nuclear Talks and Tariffs Rattle Global Markets

Indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the United States started in Geneva on February 26, 2026, marking a pivotal third round of diplomacy under increasing threats of military action from President Trump. The conversation centers on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and ballistic missile limits as U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner interact through Omani mediators. Although past meetings set preliminary guidelines, considerable friction persists: Iran wants acknowledgement of its enrichment rights, but the U.S. wants stockpile reductions; all against an American military buildup in the Middle East.

The course of these high-stake negotiations has brought rapid volatility into global commodities markets, especially lowering the geopolitical risk premium that formerly supported energy prices. Expectations for de-escalation have caused severe declines in oil benchmarks including WTI and Brent; analysts predict a possible drop of 5 USD to 8 USD per barrel should a thorough agreement materialize. Conversely, gold maintains its volatility, profiting from safe-haven demand during uncertain times but softening fast when diplomatic breakthroughs seem likely or threats disappear.

President Trump's new 10% import tariffs, which took effect on February 24, 2026, add more complexity to the financial scene. Although energy, critical minerals, and some agricultural products are exempt, the duties on steel and other items are causing deflationary pressures and are expected to cause around a 10% decrease in general commodity costs during 2026. These protectionist policies should curb worldwide trade and GDP expansion, so weighing significantly on industrial metals and demand-centric industries and worsening gold market volatility.