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FxWirePro: What do U.S. and Europe Central Bank Chairs transpire, Don't let FX exposure be fragile - Hedge EUR/USD uncertainties

Today, both ECB and Fed chairpersons are scheduled to speak on their respective economies and monetary policies to suit their economic conditions.

Volatility is often experienced during her speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

The U.S. central bankers, who stood pat on their benchmark interest rate in March in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5%, but addressed the relevant health of its economy, which contrasted against persistent global risks and US exports. While ECB maintained negative rates but in last meeting Draghi hinted easing cycle in coming months is over.

Federal Reserve policy makers last month debated an April interest-rate hike, with several officials leaning against such a move because it would send the wrong signal and others saying it might be warranted.

“Several expressed the view that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate,” minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March 15-16 meeting released Wednesday in Washington said.

The debate, by flagging a potential April rate increase that’s nevertheless unlikely, may have the result of adding more focus to the June session. It also shows the FOMC is prepared to move in a meeting, if necessary, without a scheduled press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Why do you have to hedge EUR/USD exposure in rest of 2016:

Fed's hiking cycle is still on table.

Draghi baffles by making following points:

QE measures deemed effective,  says there are risks that could undermine recovery path, Emerging markets exposed to abrupt shift in risk sentiment, Ensuring resilience of euro economy is 'paramount'.

June 23 referendum poses the latest challenge to Europe’s 368 billion-euro market, which has been in decline since 2007.

We argue that the EUR is underpricing the potential economic disruption related to Brexit and shorting EUR/USD is a cheaper way than shorting GBP/USD to hedge for such a possibility.

If the UK does exit the EU, we think it is unlikely to only affect the UK, it will likely also affect the Eurozone through both direct and indirect channels.

The vol spread between GBP/USD and EUR/USD is at historically high levels.

However, we reckon that EUR may also abate when the market happens to be more disturbed about the probable proposition of Brexit ahead of the referendum and potentially weaken more if the UK does exit the EU.

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