FxWirePro- USDCAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias - Neutral

USDCAD pared some of its gains after four days of the bullish trend.  The pair was one of the worst performers in the past one and a half months and lost more than 700 pips on board-based US Dollar weakness. Loonie recovered due to crude oil prices. Dovish comments from Cleveland Fed official Mester and San Francisco President Mary Daly dragged the US dollar slightly lower. Markets eye Canada retail sales data for further direction. It hits an intraday low of  1.33943 and is currently trading around 1.34044

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Dec increased to 28.9% from 14.6% a week ago.

Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding above the short-term( 21- EMA), 55 EMA, and below the long-term moving average of 1.34875 (200- EMA). Any violation below 1.3370 confirms further bearishness. A dip to 1.3300/1.3230 is possible.

WTI crude oil rose more than $5 after Saudi Arabia denied a supply increase. Any break above $81.25 will push oil prices up to $85.  

The near-term resistance support is around 1.3500 and any breach above targets is 1.3550/1.3600.

Indicators (4-Hour chart)

CCI (50)- Bullish

ADX- Neutral

It is good to buy on dips around 1.3400 with SL around 1.3360 for a TP of 1.3500.