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The GBP/JPY pared its little gain made yesterday as demand for safe-haven increases. It hit a low of 189.18 and is currently trading around 189.34. Intraday trend is bearish as long as resistance 192.60 holds.
Global financial turbulence, particularly about the economy of the United States and trade wars under President Trump's leadership, has boosted demand for haven currencies like the Japanese yen. The yen has also been supported by anticipation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy normalization to bridge the interest rate gap with other major economies and raise Japanese government bond yields. Other strategists contend that the yen is emerging as a new safe-haven currency, which may challenge the supremacy of the U.S. dollar in the wake of de-dollarization trends fueled by countries like China and Russia.
In January 2025, Japanese real wages declined by 1.8% year on year, the first reduction in three months, as a 4.7% hike in the consumer price index, backed by higher food and gasoline prices, outpaced the 2.8% growth in nominal wages despite the latter's 37-month leadership. With unions calling for large pay increases in the spring wage negotiations annually to counter inflation, the Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage growth for signals of monetary policy shifts, as the decline in real wages poses a threat to consumer spending and overall economic momentum
Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside
The GBP/JPY pair is trading below 34 and 55 EMA (Short-term) and 200 EMA (long-term on the 4-hour chart, confirming a bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at 190.50,a breach above this level targets 191/ 191.50/192/192.60/193/195/196. Any close above 192 in the 4-hour chart confirms further bullishness. Downside support is at 189 with additional levels at 188.75/188/187.25/186/185.
Market Indicators
CCI (50)- Bearish
Directional movement index - Neutral
It is recommended to sell on rallies around 190.15-20 with a stop-loss at 191.50 for a TP of 187.70.
