FxWirePro: EUR/JPY recovery capped at 125 levels, further upside only on breaks above
Friday, March 4, 2016 12:54 PM UTC
- EUR/JPY edged higher from session lows at 123.93, recovery in the pair was capped at 125.06.
- ECB policy meeting on 10th March is a major risk event for the pair.
- Growth and inflation expectations have deteriorated considerably in the euro area raising the likelihood that the ECB will decide a comprehensive package of measures next Thursday.
- If the ECB along with a rate cut introduces a tiered interest rate or completely exempts a part of excess reserves from the negative interest rate, the EUR should come under stronger pressure.
- Technicals are biased higher, momentum is higher, pair is holding above 5 and 10 DMA supports at 123.80 and 123.95 respectively.
- Markets already priced-in 10 bps deposit rate cut, and if the ECB fails to deliver, we could see downside pressure.
- For now, the major is capped at 125 levels, and any breaks above could see gains upto 125.56. Below 5-DMA, downside upto 122.45 likely
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