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The inventory figures this week were bearish for crude, bullish for gasoline and diesel, and neutral for jet kerosene. However, on balance, the statistics were bullish, because total US commercial stocks, including crude and products, drew by 3.9 Mb. More importantly, there were key bullish elements for crude, despite the build. Refinery runs gained sharply for the second week in a row, as plants return from maintenance; crude runs should trend higher from now until July/August.
In addition, crude imports fell and crude exports surged. The trending combination of higher crude runs/lower net crude imports should result in US crude stocks flattening and then starting to decline by the end of April. Shifting to products, the common thread was healthy or recovering demand. US 4w av. product demand grew at a moderate 128 kb/d y-o-y (+0.7%); however, the core products of gasoline, distillate, jet kerosene, and resid grew by a combined 542 kb/d y-o-y, very strong. Gasoline is still contracting slightly, but much less than earlier this year; it is trending towards a return to growth.
We continue to believe that OPEC cuts will result in the rebalancing of the global oil markets in 2017, despite recovering US production, and assuming that OPEC cuts are rolled over for the second half. The US weekly stats should soon start to provide evidence of rebalancing to the oil markets, probably by the end of April.
Crude stocks built by 0.9 Mb, less than expected (+1.4 Mb). Inventories at Cushing ticked lower, drawing by 0.3 Mb. Both pieces of the demand side showed large weekly gains.
Refinery crude runs increased by 425 kb/d, as planned maintenance continued to wind down; meanwhile, with the export arb window wide open (WTI at a large discount to Brent), crude exports were 460 kb/d higher.
On the supply side, crude production was up 18 kb/d, driven by shale (lower 48 onshore); at the same time, crude imports fell by 83 kb/d. Stocks remained far above 5y highs.
