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Today US Federal Reserve will release minutes of its April meeting at 18:00 GMT.
- Minutes' release usually add to high market volatility, however today's minutes may not provide much of a direction to dollar. However it is surely important to see, what FED policymakers might be arguing on and what are their top concerns in delivering first rate hike since 2006.
Why today's minutes are of lesser importance?
- Minutes are already a month old and of a time when US data were disappointing to downside. So general expectation is that the minutes will be dovish. After terrible first quarter data, which might be more due to seasonality US economic numbers have started picking up seen in NFP report and Housing Stats. Minutes is expected to sound that any rate hike will be data dependent.
- Focus is more on Friday's speech by Fed Governor Janet Yellen and his comments on economic outlook.
- Moreover minutes are of time before this recent bond market rout over inflationary fear.
What might surprise the market?
- Any hawkish bias in the report which can be prompt as early rate hike expectation by policy members. IF policymakers, sound less concern over dollar strength that might also be considered as hawkish.
Dollar index is coming close to critical resistance around 96 area. Index is currently trading at 95.5, up 0.25% today.
