Market Roundup
• Spanish PPI (YoY) (Oct): -3.9%, previous: -5.2% previous
• German Business Expectations (Nov): 87.2, forecast: 87.0, 87.3 previous
• German Current Assessment (Nov): 84.3, 85.4 forecast, 85.7 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov): 85.7, 86.1 forecast, 86.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Oct): -0.28 previous
•13:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ): 1.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.8%, forecast: -0.5% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.507% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.937% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.724% previous
•14:00 Belgium NBB Business Climate (Nov): -12.7 forecast, -12.8 previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Nov): -3.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: the euro firmed on Monday as dollar retreated following Donald Trump's selection of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. The appointment raised expectations of a more restrained approach to tariffs, helping to reduce U.S.-China trade tensions. The broad selloff eased some pressure on the euro, which has fallen sharply this month on worries over Trump tariffs, deteriorating economic conditions and signs of an escalation between Russia and Ukraine.The contrast saw European bond yields fall sharply, widening the gap with Treasury yields to the benefit of the dollar. Minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Tuesday and will offer more colour on the decision to cut by 50 basis points and the discussion for future easing.Also due this week are figures on U.S. and EU inflation, which will further refine the outlook for rates. The euro edged up 0.5% to $1.0478 and away from Friday's two-year trough of $1.0332. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0463(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0520(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0400`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0326(Daily low)
GBP/USD: The pound recovered from a three-day losing streak as the dollar weakened following the appointment of fund manager Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary, providing a boost to most major currency pairs. The news spurred bets his appointment would reduce the chance of severe tariffs and keep a lid on deficits, pressuring yields which slightly diminished the dollar's rate appeal. With no significant British data set for release this week, attention will shift to U.S. and euro zone inflation reports, along with comments from Bank of England officials. The pound firmed 0.4% to $1.2579 after slumping to a six-month low of $1.2475 on Friday after disappointing British business output and retail sales data raised the prospect of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2612(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2721(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2488 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2400(Psychological level)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar initially gained on Monday but gave up ground as market reacted to news of Scott Bessent being named the new U.S. Treasury Secretary. Bessent is expected by market participants to push a more phased implementation of trade tariffs and make efforts to rein in the U.S. budget deficit. Looking ahead, Australia is set to release its monthly inflation data, with October's CPI expected to soften. There's a possibility that the trimmed mean core inflation could dip to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2-3% target range.The U.S. dollar had its longest stretch of weekly gains in over a year on Friday as investors continued to price in President-Elect Trump's fiscal policies.. At GMT 12:29, The Aussie was trading up 0.04% at 0.6499. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6564(SMA 21).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6481(Nov 19th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as dollar retreated against rivals following the selection of fund manager Scott Bessent as the next U.S. Treasury secretary. Ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday week, President-elect Donald Trump ended intense speculation over the Treasury pick late on Friday and put Bessent forward for the job.While in favor of extending 2017's tax cuts, more tax reform and deregulation, Bessent has been vocal about fiscal control, sees tariff threats mostly as a negotiating tool and supports the dollar's dominant reserve currency status. The index was last down 0.47% at 106.98, having hit a two-year peak of 108.090 on Friday. The dollar dipped 0.30% on the Japanese yen to 154.26 , and further away from its recent peak of 156.76.Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.28(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.98(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.63(21SMA).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index hit a two-week high on Monday, driven by the nomination of the U.S. Treasury secretary and comments from the ECB chief economist on monetary policy easing, although lenders UniCredit and Commerzbank fell on buyout developments.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.01 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slipped on Monday following 6% gains last week, but supply worries amid mounting tensions between Western powers and major oil producers Russia and Iran kept a floor under prices.
Brent crude futures were down 60 cents at $74.57 a barrel by 1003 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had dropped 61 cents to $70.63 a barrel.
Gold prices declined 1% on Monday as investors booked profits following a five-session rally to a three-week high, while the announcement of fund manager Scott Bessent as the new U.S. Treasury Secretary tempered safe-haven buying.
Spot gold was down 1% at $2,686.73 per ounce as of 1147 GMT, after declining 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures shed 0.9% to $2,688.40.
