Market Roundup
• Italian Nov Trade Balance 4.872B, 8.057B previous
• Italian Nov Trade Balance EU 0.70B, 2.10B previous
• EU Nov Current Account 33.9B, 32.4B previous
• UK Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.8%,0.7% forecast, -0.8% previous
• UK Dec Dec Core Retail Sales (YoY) 0.7%,2.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
• UK Dec Retail Sales (YoY) 0.9%,2.6% forecast, 0.8% previous
• UK Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
• Italian Dec CPI (MoM ) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Italian Dec CPI (YoY) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Italian Dec CPI Ex Tobacco (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% previous
• Italian Dec HICP (YoY) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
• Italian Dec Italian HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• EU Dec Core CPI (YoY) 1.3%,1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
• EU Dec Core CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
• EU Dec CPI (YoY) 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
• EU Dec CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast , -0.3% previous
• EU Dec HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY ) 1.4%,1.4% forecast, 1.4% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 Russia Nov Trade Balance 12.42B previous
• US Dec Building Permits 1.468M forecast, 1.474M previous
• US Dec Building Permits (MoM) 0.9% previous
• US Dec Housing Starts 1.375M forecast, 1.365M previous
• US Dec Housing Starts (MoM) 3.2% previous
• Canada Nov Foreign Securities Purchases 11.32B previous
• Canada Nov Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 2.03B previous
• US Dec Capacity Utilization Rate 77.1%,77.3% previous
• US Dec Industrial Production (MoM) -0.2%,1.1% previous
• US Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -0.75% previous
• US Nov JOLTs Job Openings 7.233M forecast, 7.267M previous
• US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 89.0 forecast, 88.9 previous
• US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 99.3 forecast, 99.3 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: EUR/USD: The euro declined against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after U.S. data suggested the world's largest economy maintained a moderate growth pace at the end of 2019. U.S. retail sales increased for a third straight month in December and the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped for a fifth straight week last week, indicating the labour market remained strong. The euro was down 0.02 percent at $1.1109. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.11 at 97.42 on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1138 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1217 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1104 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1057 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Friday, after UK retail sales data came in weaker than expected, prompting investors to price in a higher chance of an interest rate cut at the end of this month.Sterling rose early in the day before investors resumed selling the currency in a week dominated by dismal data and dovish comments from policymakers. A raft of Bank of England policymakers this week, including outgoing Governor Mark Carney, have signalled that a rate cut is likely unless economic data improve significantly. The pound was down 0.17% against the dollar, at $1.3055 , the lowest level since Dec. 27. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3102 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3331 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3025 (Daily Low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2905 (Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday, as encouraging U.S. economic data lifted greenback across the board U.S. retail sales increased for a third straight month in December and the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits dropped for a fifth straight week last week, indicating the labour market remained strong.. At (GMT 12:25), Greenback gained 0.20% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9665. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9668 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9693 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9641 (Daily Low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9613 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Friday, upbeat US economic data boosted dollar Data showed on Thursday, U.S. retail sales increased for a third straight month in December and the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment dipped.Other data showed a gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rebounded in January to its highest in eight months, leading the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia to call the factory outlook the brightest in more than 18 months.. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.40 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 110.00 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 109.35 (11 DMA).
Equities Recap
European shares touched a record high on Friday after EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan struck a positive tone on talks with Washington, soothing some concerns over a possible escalation in trade tensions between the cross-Atlantic allies.
At (GMT 12:51),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading higher at 0.97percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.56 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.89 percent
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday but was on track to post its biggest weekly drop in two months as a long awaited U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal fuelled risk appetite.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,555.24 per ounce by 0823 GMT, heading for a weekly drop of 0.4% - its biggest since the week ended Nov. 8.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday but were set to end the week broadly steady as sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, raised concerns about fuel demand and countered optimism from the signing of a China-U.S. trade deal.
Brent crude futures were up 44 cents at $65.06 by 1014 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 35 cents at $58.87 a barrel.
U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries remained narrowly mixed during Friday’s afternoon session ahead of the country’s JOLTs job openings data for the month of November, scheduled to be released today by 15:00GMT and FOMC members Harker and Quarles’ speeches, also due today by 14:00GMT and 17:45GMT respectively. In addition, the Philly Fed manufacturing index for January, lined up for release today by 13:30GMT shall provide further direction to the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 1.816 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield jumped over 2 basis points to 2.281 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year fell 1 basis point to 1.559 percent.
EUR: The German bunds remained tad higher during European trading session Friday after investors have shrugged-off the rise in Eurozone’s consumer price inflation for the month of December, released today. The German 10-year bond yield, which move inversely to its price, slipped nearly 1 basis point to -0.222 percent, the yield on 30-year note suffered nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 0.292 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year too tad down at -0.599 percent.
AUS: The Australian bonds remained flat during Asian session of the last trading day of the week Friday as investors remained side-lined in a muted session that witnessed data of little economic significance amid overall positive sentiments in the market. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 1.186 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond remained flat at 1.796 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year lost barely 1 basis point to trade at 0.780 percent.
