Market Roundup
- EUR/USD 0.17%, USD/JPY -0.12%, GBP/USD -0.03%, EUR/GBP 0.17%
- DXY -0.09%, DAX 0.55%, FTSE 0.29%, Brent -0.06%, Gold 0.24%
- Trump says no tariff reprieve for China, expects productive talks with Xi
- EU Jun HICP Flash YY, 1.2%, 1.2% f'cast, 1.2% prev
- EU Jun HICP-X F&E Flash YY, 1.2%, 1.0% f'cast, 1.2% prev
- Germany May Import Prices YY, -0.2%, -0.3% f'cast, 1.4% prev
- UK PM candidate Johnson to slash taxes in no-deal Brexit budget
- Great Britain Q1 Current Account (GBP), -30.045 bln, -32.000 bln f'cast, -23.707 bln prev -23.707 bln rvsd
- Great Britain Q1 GDP QQ, 0.5%, 0.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev
- Great Britain Q1 GDP YY, 1.8%, 1.8% f'cast, 1.8% prev
- Great Britain Q1 Business Investment YY, -1.5%, -1.4% prev
- In breakout debate performance, Harris challenges Biden on race
- With Iran nuclear deal on brink, world powers in "last chance" talks
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases personal income figures for May, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent, after increasing 0.5 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the month of May. The index rose at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in the prior month, while core PCE is likely to have increased 0.2 percent after staying unchanged in April.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Personal spending is likely to rise 0.4 percent in the month of May, after surging 0.3 percent in April.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Statistics Canada releases its Raw Material Price Index for the month of May. The index posted a rise of 5.6 percent in April.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Statistics Canada will report its industrial producer prices for the month of May. The indicator rose 0.8 percent in the prior month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product increased 0.1 percent in April after increasing 0.5 percent in the month of March.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index is likely to show that business conditions eased to 53.1 in June from 54.2 last month.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 98.0 in June after posting a final reading of 97.9 in May.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) The Bank of Canada releases Business Outlook Survey.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
Key Events Ahead
- (1520 ET/1920 GMT) San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at the Aspen Ideas Festival in Aspen
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index declined after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he had not promised Chinese President Xi Jinping a reprieve from escalating tariffs in a trade war that is casting a shadow on global growth. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1percent down at 96.10, having touched a low of 95.84 on Tuesday, its lowest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -6.48 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro surged after data showed Eurozone inflation was stable at 1.2 percent in June on the year, while core-inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices grew to 1.1 percent from 0.8 percent the previous month, offering some comfort to the European Central Bank. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1383, having touched a high of 1.1412 on Tuesday, its highest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 18.80 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1437 (Mar. 21 High), a break above targets 1.1474 (Dec. 21 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1319 (Mar 18 Low), a break below could drag it below 1.1277 (Mar. 13 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined as investors remained uncertain whether the outcome of U.S-China trade talks will produce progress in ending the year-long trade war that has dented growth in global markets. The pair was trading 0.1 percent down at 107.66, having hit a low of 106.78 on Tuesday, its lowest since Jan. 3. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -52.39 (Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure, Chicago Purchasing Manager Index and Michigan consumer sentiment index. Immediate resistance is located at 108.30 (78.6% retracement of 108.72 and 106.78), a break above targets 108.80 (June 11 High). On the downside, support is seen at 107.24 (June 24 Low), a break below could take it lower at 106.78 (June 25 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose after data released earlier showed Britain's economic output grew 0.5 percent in the first quarter of the year, as businesses rushed to stock up raw materials in anticipation of a Brexit that was postponed. The major traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2682, having hit a high of 1.2783 on Tuesday, it’s highest since May 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -93.26 (Slightly Bearish) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2743 (June 5 High), a break above could take it near 1.2798 (May 17 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2642 (Jun. 21 Low), a break below targets 1.2611 (May 29 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.5 percent down at 89.76 pence, having hit a low of 89.92 earlier, it’s lowest since Jan. 11.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc rose, extending previous session gains, as investors were nervous over the outcome of U.S-China trade talks. The major trades 0.2 percent down at 0.9748, having touched a low of 0.9693 on Tuesday; it’s lowest since Sept. 25. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -76.98 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9855 (50.0% retracement 1.0014 and 0.9693) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 0.9893 (61.8% retracement). The near-term support is around 0.9710 (June. 24 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.0.9635 (Sept. 25).
Equities Recap
European shares surged ahead of a meeting on trade between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index surged 0.3 percent at 383.22 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 gained 0.2 percent to 1,508.72 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.3 percent up at 7,424.30 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 rallied 0.6 to 19,424.72 points.
Germany's DAX rose 0.4 percent at 12,324.34 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.2 percent higher at 5,506.90 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined by more than 1 percent as traders remained cautious ahead of a scheduled meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit and next week's OPEC gathering. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 1.1 percent lower at $65.60 per barrel by 1011 GMT, having hit a high of $66.83 on Wednesday, its highest since May 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.3 percent up at $59.44 a barrel, after rising as high as $59.90 on Wednesday, its highest since the May 23.
Gold prices rose and were poised for their best month in three years, as uncertainty loomed over whether the highly crucial trade talks between China and the United States would yield any progress in ending a year-long trade dispute. Spot gold was 0.2 percent up at $1,412.92 per ounce by 1017 GMT, having touched a high of $1,439.14 on Tuesday, its highest since May 14, 2013 and has risen nearly 8.4 percent so far this month, putting it on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since June 2016. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.3 percent to $1,416.60 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries edged slightly lower during the afternoon session, ahead of the country’s personal income and spending data, scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT, with major focus concentrated on the G-20 Summit, starting today in Japan. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 1-1/2 basis points to 2.019 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also surged 1-1/2 basis points to 2.537 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year hovered around 1.745 percent.
The German bunds traded steady during European trading session after eurozone’s consumer price inflation (CPI) data for the month of June, remained unchanged from that in May. However, investors remained cautious as top leaders gather at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan for a 2-day meeting, starting today. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, slipped nearly 1 basis point to -0.322 percent, the yield on 30-year note traded flat at 0.263 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year too remained flat at -0.729 percent.
The Japanese government bond yields plummeted at close on the last trading day of the week as investors grew anxious and nervous before the United States President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are set to meet at the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, starting today, to discuss on a trade truce. At close, the yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB note, which moves inversely to its price, plunged 19 basis points to -0.159 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year nose-dived 21 basis points to 0.369 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year slumped 8 basis points to -0.218 percent.
The Australian government bond yields tracked weakness in the United States counterpart during Asian trading session as investors closely eye the G-20 Osaka Summit in Japan, scheduled to start from today. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, plunged nearly 4 basis points to 1.319 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond slumped 3-1/2 basis points to 1.934 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year gained 1-1/2 basis points to 0.971 percent.
