Market Roundup
•German Jul HICP (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5%forecast,0.2% previous
•German Jul CPI (YoY) 2.3%,2.3% forecast,2.2% previous
•German Jul HICP (YoY) 2.6%,2.6% forecast,2.5% previous
•German Jul CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•Italian Jul CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.5% forecast,0.1% previous
•Italian Jul Italian CPI (YoY) 1.3%,1.3% forecast,0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Jul Part Time Employment Change 1.9K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Employment Change 26.9K forecast,-1.4K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Full Employment Change -3.4K previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Unemployment Rate 6.5% forecast,6.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Participation Rate 65.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Jul Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.6% previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 586 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Friday as the dollar strengthened following data showing lower-than-expected U.S. unemployment claims, which helped ease recession fears. The U.S. Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, marking the largest drop in about 11 months and falling short of economist expectations for 240,000. Jobless claims data received extra attention after last Friday's weaker-than-expected July jobs report contributed to Monday's global financial market rout. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.11% to 103.22 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0977(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0903(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged up on Friday, but remained close to this week's one-month lows against the dollar, as a sense of stability returned to markets after an intensely volatile start to the week. The Bank of England's knife-edge decision to cut interest rates last week dented the pound. But since then, concern about a hard landing for the U.S. economy, among other factors, has triggered a selloff in risk assets, sweeping sterling lower along with other global markets. Meanwhile, a survey showed that Britain's jobs market showed further signs of cooling in July and employers increased pay more slowly. The data will form part of the Bank of England's discussions about when to cut interest rates again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2855(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2596(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Friday as U.S. jobs data eased concerns that the world's biggest economy was headed for a hard landing. Data released on Thursday revealed that U.S. jobless claims declined more than anticipated last week, indicating that concerns about the labor market deteriorating were likely overstated. The dollar remained near a one-week high, which in turn made gold more expensive. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September. Investors are now shifting their attention to the upcoming U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, due next week, for more clues on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8686 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9749 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8606(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8479 (Daily low).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased slightly against yen on Friday as nerves calmed following a volatile week that saw a mass unwinding of currency carry trades in response to the Bank of Japan's surprise rate hike late last month. The U.S. jobs report on Thursday helped calm investor nerves after July's downbeat labour market print that fuelled worries of a prolonged slowdown in the world's largest economy, leading to a financial market selloff. The dollar index , which measures the currency versus six others, was 0.1% lower at 103.19 following three days of gains. The dollar edged down 0.1% to 147.175 yen Strong resistance can be seen at 148.45(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.80 (50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.43(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.00(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced 1% on Friday, on track to log gains for a fourth consecutive session and clawing back nearly all of their losses for the week following a global stocks rout on fears of a U.S. recession.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.30 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Friday as the latest jobs data eased concerns on U.S. recession, with prices set for a weekly decline after a global sell-off earlier in the week led to big losses in bullion, while traders awaited further clues on U.S. rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.1% to $2,425.34 per ounce, as of 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% at $2,464.60.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday on course for a weekly gain of more than 3% as U.S. jobs data eased demand concerns while fears of a widening Middle East conflict persisted.
Brent crude futures were up 22 cents or 0.3% to $79.38 per barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 26 cents or 0.3% at $76.45 per barrel.
