Market Roundup
- EUR/USD -0.21%, USD/JPY -0.04%, GBP/USD -0.32%, EUR/GBP 0.12%
- DXY 0.14%, DAX 0.40%, FTSE 0.72%, Brent -0.49%, Gold -0.02%
- EZ Apr HICP Flash YY, 1.7 percent, 1.6 percent forecast, 1.4 percent previous
- EZ Mar Producer Prices YY, 2.9 percent, 3.0 percent forecast, 3.0 percent previous
- GB Apr Markit/CIPS Serv PMI, 50.4, 50.5 forecast, 48.9 previous
- GB Apr Reserve Assets Total, 171.971 bln, 169.493 bln previous
- ECB rate tiering costs could outweigh benefits: Weidmann
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Apr Non-Farm Payrolls, 185k forecast, 196k previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Apr Private Payrolls, 180k forecast, 182k previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Apr Unemployment Rate, 3.8 percent forecast, 3.8% previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Apr Average Earnings YY, 3.3 percent forecast, 3.2 percent previous
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) U.S. Mar Wholesale Inventories Adv, 0.3 percent forecast, 0.9 percent previous
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) U.S. Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI, 57.0 forecast, 56.1 previous
Key Events Ahead
- N/A NABE and Riksbank organize international conference entitled "Global Economies at the Crossroads: Growing Together While Growing Apart?" - Stockholm
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) ECB's Andrea Enria takes part in panel discussion on "Restoring people's trust in the Single Market for banking and finance" State of the Union conference - Florence
- (1015 ET/1415 GMT) Chicago Fed's Charles Evans speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy before the NABE International Symposium - Stockholm
- (1130 ET/1530 GMT) Federal Reserve's Richard Clarida speaks on "Models, Markets and Monetary Policy" hosted by Hoover Institution - Stanford
- (1345 ET/1745 GMT) New York Fed's John Williams speaks on "Tying Down the Anchor: Monetary Policy Rules and the Lower Bound on Interest Rates" hosted by Hoover Institution - Stanford
- (1500 ET/1900 GMT) Federal Reserve's Michelle Bowman chairs "Milton Friedman and the Long History of Monetary Policy Rules" luncheon discussion - Stanford
- (1800 ET/2200 GMT) ONB Governor Ewald Nowotny, SUERF President Jakob de Haan, former ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet and ECB's Peter Praet participate in two-day conference on European economic and monetary union - Vienna
- (1945 ET/2345 GMT) St. Louis Fed's James Bullard, San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly, Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan and Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester participate in "Monetary Strategies in Practice" policy panel - Stanford
FX Beat
DXY: The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends gains for the 3rd straight session, pauses shy of 98 mark. Increased upside momentum seen ahead of key NFP data. Upbeat data could see test of 98.33.
EUR/USD: EUR/USD trades 0.11 percent lower on the day at 1.1157 at 1035 GMT. The major is extending downside on dollar strength. The single currency moved little despite better than expected Euro-zone consumer inflation figures. Eurozone flash CPI rises to 1.7 percent y/y in April, beating expectations of 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent previous. Traders wary to place any aggressive bets ahead of the US monthly jobs report.
USD/CHF: USD/CHF trades higher on broad based US dollar buying. Markets eye US Non-farm payroll for further direction. The US economy is expected to add 185000 jobs in April compared to 196K in March and average hourly earnings forecast 0.3 percent vs 0.1 percent previous month. Any upbeat hourly earnings will pull US dollar further higher. Strong resistance seen around 1.02500 and any violation above will take the pair to next level till 1.02900/1.0340. Near-term support is around 1.0175 and break below will drag the pair to next level till 1.01570/1.01250.
GBP/USD: Cable grinds lower for the 2nd straight session, trades 0.21 percent lower at 1.2996 at 1050 GMT. UK services PMI returns to growth in April, prints at 50.4, almost in line with the expectations at 50.5 and compared to 48.9 booked in the previous month. Expansions were only marginal, suggesting the economy was struggling to grow in April. USD strength also aids in the downside. Price action has slipped below 21-EMA and technical bias is bearish. Scope for test of 200-DMA at 1.2959. Bearish invalidation only above 50-DMA.
USD/JPY: USD/JPY rangebound ahead of crucial non-farm payrolls data. The major is flat-lined around 200-DMA. Price action has bounced of 110-EMA with a 'Doji' formation at lows. Bias remains slightly bullish. Decisive break above 200-DMA will see further gains. Traders sidelined ahead of today’s important release of NFP report. Focus also on the release of US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and scheduled speeches by a slew of influential FOMC members for some meaningful trading opportunities. Break above 200-DMA finds next major resistance at 20-DMA at 111.68. 55-EMA is immediate support at 111.31.
Equities Recap
Europe nudges higher. At 1145 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.39% at 390.30 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index gained 0.23 percent to 1,542.64 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.78 percent higher at 7,408.75 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 was up 0.22 percent at 19,729.12 points.
Germany's DAX up 0.34 percent at 12,387.86 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.27 percent up at 5,553.59 points.
Commodities Recap
WTI recovers towards $ 62 amid risk-on and surging U.S. output. Brent crude oil futures were at $70.08 a barrel at 0835 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 41 cents at $61.40.
Spot gold was unchanged at $1,270.71 per ounce as of 0139 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,271.70 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
U.S.: The U.S. Treasuries slipped during Friday’s afternoon session, ahead of the country’s non-farm payrolls data for the month of April, coupled with the unemployment rate for the similar period, both scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT. Also, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April and FOMC members Evans and Clarida’s speeches also due later today, will add further direction to the debt market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 1 basis point to 2.559 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields hovered around 2.944 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year edged nearly 1 basis point up to 2.355 percent.
EUR: The German bunds suffered during European trading session Friday following the better-than-expected rise in eurozone’s consumer price inflation (CPI) data for the month of April, released early today. The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 0.036 percent, the yield on 30-year note edged 1 basis point higher to 0.683 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year hovered around -0.599 percent.
JGBs: Japanese markets remain closed today.
AUS: Australian government bonds suffered on the last trading day of the week Friday amid a muted session that witnessed data of little economic significance, still tracking a surge on the U.S. Treasury yields, following Fed’s comments on inflation at its latest monetary policy meeting. The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1-1/2 basis points to 1.796 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond hovered around 2.420 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year remained tad higher at 1.333 percent.
